Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a new US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral relations remain anchored in the extended truce framework reached in late 2025 and reaffirmed during the May 2026 Beijing meetings, with key tariff suspensions and exclusion processes already locked in through November 2026. No high-level summits, formal negotiating rounds, or announcements have occurred or been scheduled in the immediate window, while recent developments—including China’s August 2026 export controls and sanctions in response to US measures—underscore persistent friction over technology, agriculture, and supply-chain issues. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing aligns with this absence of near-term catalysts, as incremental adjustments have typically required structured diplomatic engagement rather than ad-hoc resolutions. Late-breaking events such as an unscheduled Trump-Xi call, unexpected concessions on rare earths or fentanyl-related tariffs, or a sudden bilateral working-group breakthrough could still shift the outcome before month-end, though such moves lack precedent in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a new US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral relations remain anchored in the extended truce framework reached in late 2025 and reaffirmed during the May 2026 Beijing meetings, with key tariff suspensions and exclusion processes already locked in through November 2026. No high-level summits, formal negotiating rounds, or announcements have occurred or been scheduled in the immediate window, while recent developments—including China’s August 2026 export controls and sanctions in response to US measures—underscore persistent friction over technology, agriculture, and supply-chain issues. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing aligns with this absence of near-term catalysts, as incremental adjustments have typically required structured diplomatic engagement rather than ad-hoc resolutions. Late-breaking events such as an unscheduled Trump-Xi call, unexpected concessions on rare earths or fentanyl-related tariffs, or a sudden bilateral working-group breakthrough could still shift the outcome before month-end, though such moves lack precedent in the current cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,379End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a new US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral relations remain anchored in the extended truce framework reached in late 2025 and reaffirmed during the May 2026 Beijing meetings, with key tariff suspensions and exclusion processes already locked in through November 2026. No high-level summits, formal negotiating rounds, or announcements have occurred or been scheduled in the immediate window, while recent developments—including China’s August 2026 export controls and sanctions in response to US measures—underscore persistent friction over technology, agriculture, and supply-chain issues. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing aligns with this absence of near-term catalysts, as incremental adjustments have typically required structured diplomatic engagement rather than ad-hoc resolutions. Late-breaking events such as an unscheduled Trump-Xi call, unexpected concessions on rare earths or fentanyl-related tariffs, or a sudden bilateral working-group breakthrough could still shift the outcome before month-end, though such moves lack precedent in the current cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$2,379End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.8% probability against a new US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral relations remain anchored in the extended truce framework reached in late 2025 and reaffirmed during the May 2026 Beijing meetings, with key tariff suspensions and exclusion processes already locked in through November 2026. No high-level summits, formal negotiating rounds, or announcements have occurred or been scheduled in the immediate window, while recent developments—including China’s August 2026 export controls and sanctions in response to US measures—underscore persistent friction over technology, agriculture, and supply-chain issues. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing aligns with this absence of near-term catalysts, as incremental adjustments have typically required structured diplomatic engagement rather than ad-hoc resolutions. Late-breaking events such as an unscheduled Trump-Xi call, unexpected concessions on rare earths or fentanyl-related tariffs, or a sudden bilateral working-group breakthrough could still shift the outcome before month-end, though such moves lack precedent in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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