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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$419,583 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$419,583 Vol.

Polymarket

Ryan Salame

$29,521 Vol.

42%

Daniel Penny

$447 Vol.

21%

Matt Gaetz

$3,870 Vol.

21%

Steve Bannon

$7,813 Vol.

17%

Keonne Rodriguez

$17,190 Vol.

17%

Stefan Brodie

$2,320 Vol.

16%

Roger Stone

$3,487 Vol.

15%

Donald Brodie

$1,195 Vol.

14%

Roger Ver

$1,234 Vol.

10%

Joe Exotic

$5,364 Vol.

9%

Eric Adams

$1,058 Vol.

9%

Bob Menendez

$195 Vol.

8%

Martin Shkreli

$29,664 Vol.

7%

Nicolas Maduro

$9,491 Vol.

6%

Julian Assange

$3,037 Vol.

6%

Diddy

$25,473 Vol.

6%

Young Thug

$4,366 Vol.

6%

Himself

$12,557 Vol.

5%

Derek Chauvin

$19,451 Vol.

5%

Edward Snowden

$3,103 Vol.

5%

Andrew Tate

$236 Vol.

5%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$128,533 Vol.

4%

Elizabeth Holmes

$3,547 Vol.

4%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$22,162 Vol.

4%

Do Kwon

$23,580 Vol.

4%

Hunter Biden

$5,483 Vol.

3%

Antoine Massey

$2,289 Vol.

2%

Elon Musk

$52,917 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised broad clemency authority since returning to office in January 2025, granting over 1,700 pardons and commutations by June 2026. This includes immediate blanket relief for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants, commutations for Proud Boys and Oath Keepers leaders, and individual grants to figures such as Ross Ulbricht, Trevor Milton, George Santos, and Stephen Buyer. Recent actions in 2026 have continued at a steady pace, with batches issued in February, June, and July. These patterns reflect priorities around political allies, campaign supporters, and cases tied to prior investigations, establishing a baseline for expectations about additional grants before the 2027 cutoff. Trader assessments center on which specific names or categories remain eligible under ongoing White House review.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,583
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised broad clemency authority since returning to office in January 2025, granting over 1,700 pardons and commutations by June 2026. This includes immediate blanket relief for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants, commutations for Proud Boys and Oath Keepers leaders, and individual grants to figures such as Ross Ulbricht, Trevor Milton, George Santos, and Stephen Buyer. Recent actions in 2026 have continued at a steady pace, with batches issued in February, June, and July. These patterns reflect priorities around political allies, campaign supporters, and cases tied to prior investigations, establishing a baseline for expectations about additional grants before the 2027 cutoff. Trader assessments center on which specific names or categories remain eligible under ongoing White House review.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,583
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ryan Salame" at 42%, followed by "Daniel Penny" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $419.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Ryan Salame" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Daniel Penny" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.