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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$419,092 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$419,092 Vol.

Polymarket

Ryan Salame

$29,521 Vol.

40%

Matt Gaetz

$3,870 Vol.

21%

Keonne Rodriguez

$17,140 Vol.

18%

Steve Bannon

$7,813 Vol.

17%

Stefan Brodie

$2,320 Vol.

16%

Roger Stone

$3,467 Vol.

14%

Donald Brodie

$1,195 Vol.

14%

Daniel Penny

$447 Vol.

18%

Roger Ver

$1,184 Vol.

9%

Joe Exotic

$5,364 Vol.

9%

Eric Adams

$1,058 Vol.

8%

Bob Menendez

$195 Vol.

7%

Martin Shkreli

$29,664 Vol.

6%

Julian Assange

$3,037 Vol.

6%

Nicolas Maduro

$9,491 Vol.

6%

Diddy

$25,465 Vol.

6%

Young Thug

$4,366 Vol.

6%

Himself

$12,557 Vol.

5%

Derek Chauvin

$19,451 Vol.

5%

Edward Snowden

$3,082 Vol.

5%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$128,533 Vol.

4%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$21,878 Vol.

4%

Elizabeth Holmes

$3,547 Vol.

4%

Andrew Tate

$236 Vol.

4%

Hunter Biden

$5,483 Vol.

3%

Do Kwon

$23,521 Vol.

2%

Antoine Massey

$2,289 Vol.

2%

Elon Musk

$52,917 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has already exercised the pardon power extensively in his second term, beginning with a January 20, 2025, proclamation granting blanket clemency to roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants and targeted commutations for select leaders. Additional grants through mid-2026 have covered allies such as Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, along with figures facing fraud or regulatory charges. These actions reflect a pattern of prioritizing loyalty and reversing prior prosecutions. With the resolution window extending into 2027, trader assessments focus on further grants for political associates, white-collar cases, or other pending matters before term limits or political shifts intervene. Historical precedent shows presidents often issue clusters of pardons near year-end or during transitions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,092
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has already exercised the pardon power extensively in his second term, beginning with a January 20, 2025, proclamation granting blanket clemency to roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants and targeted commutations for select leaders. Additional grants through mid-2026 have covered allies such as Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, along with figures facing fraud or regulatory charges. These actions reflect a pattern of prioritizing loyalty and reversing prior prosecutions. With the resolution window extending into 2027, trader assessments focus on further grants for political associates, white-collar cases, or other pending matters before term limits or political shifts intervene. Historical precedent shows presidents often issue clusters of pardons near year-end or during transitions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,092
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ryan Salame" at 40%, followed by "Matt Gaetz" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $419.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Ryan Salame" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Gaetz" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.