Traders see limited near-term cabinet turnover, with the leading outcome of no departures before 2027 reflecting the early stage of the administration and the recent confirmation of most secretaries. RFK Jr., Chris Wright, and Susie Wiles lead individual probabilities due to their high-profile roles in health, energy, and White House operations, where policy friction or performance scrutiny can accelerate exits. Other names such as Doug Burgum and Pete Hegseth sit lower amid ongoing departmental priorities and Senate dynamics. Market pricing incorporates historical cabinet attrition patterns while weighing upcoming legislative votes, budget cycles, and potential scandals as key variables that could shift implied probabilities in the coming months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 8.8%
Susie Wiles 6.2%
Chris Wright 5.9%
$41,734 Vol.
$41,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
9%
Susie Wiles
6%
Chris Wright
10%
Doug Burgum
6%
Russell T. Vought
5%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
3%
Howard Lutnick
3%
Brooke Rollins
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
Sean Duffy
2%
Scott Turner
2%
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Doug Collins
<1%
None before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 8.8%
Susie Wiles 6.2%
Chris Wright 5.9%
$41,734 Vol.
$41,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$8,001 Vol.
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,019 Vol.
9%
Susie Wiles
$3,362 Vol.
6%
Chris Wright
$730 Vol.
10%
Doug Burgum
$779 Vol.
6%
Russell T. Vought
$473 Vol.
5%
Pete Hegseth
$939 Vol.
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,473 Vol.
3%
Howard Lutnick
$826 Vol.
3%
Brooke Rollins
$670 Vol.
3%
J.D. Vance
$581 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$636 Vol.
2%
Sean Duffy
$626 Vol.
2%
Scott Turner
$351 Vol.
2%
Kelly Loeffler
$776 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$478 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$498 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$517 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$646 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$847 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$506 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Traders see limited near-term cabinet turnover, with the leading outcome of no departures before 2027 reflecting the early stage of the administration and the recent confirmation of most secretaries. RFK Jr., Chris Wright, and Susie Wiles lead individual probabilities due to their high-profile roles in health, energy, and White House operations, where policy friction or performance scrutiny can accelerate exits. Other names such as Doug Burgum and Pete Hegseth sit lower amid ongoing departmental priorities and Senate dynamics. Market pricing incorporates historical cabinet attrition patterns while weighing upcoming legislative votes, budget cycles, and potential scandals as key variables that could shift implied probabilities in the coming months.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$41,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Traders see limited near-term cabinet turnover, with the leading outcome of no departures before 2027 reflecting the early stage of the administration and the recent confirmation of most secretaries. RFK Jr., Chris Wright, and Susie Wiles lead individual probabilities due to their high-profile roles in health, energy, and White House operations, where policy friction or performance scrutiny can accelerate exits. Other names such as Doug Burgum and Pete Hegseth sit lower amid ongoing departmental priorities and Senate dynamics. Market pricing incorporates historical cabinet attrition patterns while weighing upcoming legislative votes, budget cycles, and potential scandals as key variables that could shift implied probabilities in the coming months.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$41,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see limited near-term cabinet turnover, with the leading outcome of no departures before 2027 reflecting the early stage of the administration and the recent confirmation of most secretaries. RFK Jr., Chris Wright, and Susie Wiles lead individual probabilities due to their high-profile roles in health, energy, and White House operations, where policy friction or performance scrutiny can accelerate exits. Other names such as Doug Burgum and Pete Hegseth sit lower amid ongoing departmental priorities and Senate dynamics. Market pricing incorporates historical cabinet attrition patterns while weighing upcoming legislative votes, budget cycles, and potential scandals as key variables that could shift implied probabilities in the coming months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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