US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for resolving issues including Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program. As of mid-August, direct talks have not resumed amid disagreements over Hormuz routing and control, with the US maintaining a naval presence and Iran conditioning reopening on compensation and protocol changes. Pakistan and Oman continue mediation efforts, including recent indirect messaging, while technical discussions have occurred in Doha and Switzerland involving figures such as US Vice President JD Vance. A Hormuz interim accord with Oman could restart formal rounds before year-end, though persistent gaps on enrichment limits and ballistic missiles limit prospects for high-level attendance without further breakthroughs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$28,281 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Abbas Araghchi
66%
Jared Kushner
69%
Steve Witkoff
73%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
63%
J.D. Vance
58%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
37%
Nick Stewart
24%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
19%
Kazem Gharibabadi
19%
Rafael Grossi
23%
Marco Rubio
23%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
16%
Ishaq Dar
14%
Donald Trump
12%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Esmail Qaani
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
43%
Masoud Pezeshkian
44%
$28,281 Vol.
Abbas Araghchi
$411 Vol.
66%
Jared Kushner
$230 Vol.
69%
Steve Witkoff
$427 Vol.
73%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$80 Vol.
63%
J.D. Vance
$557 Vol.
58%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$20 Vol.
37%
Nick Stewart
$40 Vol.
24%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$838 Vol.
19%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$885 Vol.
19%
Rafael Grossi
$44 Vol.
23%
Marco Rubio
$40 Vol.
23%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$939 Vol.
16%
Ishaq Dar
$932 Vol.
14%
Donald Trump
$59 Vol.
12%
Pete Hegseth
$2,458 Vol.
6%
Esmail Qaani
$1,211 Vol.
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,046 Vol.
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
$25 Vol.
43%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$40 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for resolving issues including Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program. As of mid-August, direct talks have not resumed amid disagreements over Hormuz routing and control, with the US maintaining a naval presence and Iran conditioning reopening on compensation and protocol changes. Pakistan and Oman continue mediation efforts, including recent indirect messaging, while technical discussions have occurred in Doha and Switzerland involving figures such as US Vice President JD Vance. A Hormuz interim accord with Oman could restart formal rounds before year-end, though persistent gaps on enrichment limits and ballistic missiles limit prospects for high-level attendance without further breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$28,281End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for resolving issues including Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program. As of mid-August, direct talks have not resumed amid disagreements over Hormuz routing and control, with the US maintaining a naval presence and Iran conditioning reopening on compensation and protocol changes. Pakistan and Oman continue mediation efforts, including recent indirect messaging, while technical discussions have occurred in Doha and Switzerland involving figures such as US Vice President JD Vance. A Hormuz interim accord with Oman could restart formal rounds before year-end, though persistent gaps on enrichment limits and ballistic missiles limit prospects for high-level attendance without further breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$28,281End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for resolving issues including Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program. As of mid-August, direct talks have not resumed amid disagreements over Hormuz routing and control, with the US maintaining a naval presence and Iran conditioning reopening on compensation and protocol changes. Pakistan and Oman continue mediation efforts, including recent indirect messaging, while technical discussions have occurred in Doha and Switzerland involving figures such as US Vice President JD Vance. A Hormuz interim accord with Oman could restart formal rounds before year-end, though persistent gaps on enrichment limits and ballistic missiles limit prospects for high-level attendance without further breakthroughs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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