US-Iran negotiations remain stalled over access to the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that set a 60-day framework for a broader deal. Recent indirect messaging through intermediaries has replaced formal rounds, while proposals involving Oman for maritime arrangements have yet to yield agreement amid mutual accusations of violations. Technical discussions in Doha and Switzerland earlier this summer focused on asset unfreezing and navigation but produced limited progress. Upcoming catalysts include potential ceasefire extensions, renewed mediator involvement from Pakistan and Qatar, and any high-level signals from Washington or Tehran that could restart direct or indirect sessions before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$28,516 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Jared Kushner
71%
Steve Witkoff
73%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
63%
Abbas Araghchi
61%
J.D. Vance
59%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
37%
Nick Stewart
24%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
20%
Kazem Gharibabadi
18%
Marco Rubio
23%
Rafael Grossi
23%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
16%
Ishaq Dar
14%
Donald Trump
12%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
6%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Ahmad Vahidi
43%
Masoud Pezeshkian
44%
$28,516 Vol.
Jared Kushner
$230 Vol.
71%
Steve Witkoff
$427 Vol.
73%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$80 Vol.
63%
Abbas Araghchi
$411 Vol.
61%
J.D. Vance
$577 Vol.
59%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$20 Vol.
37%
Nick Stewart
$40 Vol.
24%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$998 Vol.
20%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$885 Vol.
18%
Marco Rubio
$40 Vol.
23%
Rafael Grossi
$44 Vol.
23%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$939 Vol.
16%
Ishaq Dar
$932 Vol.
14%
Donald Trump
$59 Vol.
12%
Esmail Qaani
$1,231 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,061 Vol.
6%
Pete Hegseth
$2,478 Vol.
6%
Ahmad Vahidi
$25 Vol.
43%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$40 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran negotiations remain stalled over access to the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that set a 60-day framework for a broader deal. Recent indirect messaging through intermediaries has replaced formal rounds, while proposals involving Oman for maritime arrangements have yet to yield agreement amid mutual accusations of violations. Technical discussions in Doha and Switzerland earlier this summer focused on asset unfreezing and navigation but produced limited progress. Upcoming catalysts include potential ceasefire extensions, renewed mediator involvement from Pakistan and Qatar, and any high-level signals from Washington or Tehran that could restart direct or indirect sessions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$28,516End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran negotiations remain stalled over access to the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that set a 60-day framework for a broader deal. Recent indirect messaging through intermediaries has replaced formal rounds, while proposals involving Oman for maritime arrangements have yet to yield agreement amid mutual accusations of violations. Technical discussions in Doha and Switzerland earlier this summer focused on asset unfreezing and navigation but produced limited progress. Upcoming catalysts include potential ceasefire extensions, renewed mediator involvement from Pakistan and Qatar, and any high-level signals from Washington or Tehran that could restart direct or indirect sessions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$28,516End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran negotiations remain stalled over access to the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that set a 60-day framework for a broader deal. Recent indirect messaging through intermediaries has replaced formal rounds, while proposals involving Oman for maritime arrangements have yet to yield agreement amid mutual accusations of violations. Technical discussions in Doha and Switzerland earlier this summer focused on asset unfreezing and navigation but produced limited progress. Upcoming catalysts include potential ceasefire extensions, renewed mediator involvement from Pakistan and Qatar, and any high-level signals from Washington or Tehran that could restart direct or indirect sessions before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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