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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

icon for Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

$246,565 Vol.

Aug 18, 2026
Polymarket

$246,565 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Tom Begich

Tom Begich

$13,010 Vol.

97%

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Bernadette Wilson

$17,623 Vol.

94%

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Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

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79%

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Treg Taylor

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Dave Bronson

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Click Bishop

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Bill Walker

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Shelley Hughes

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Edna DeVries

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Lesil McGuire

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Jessica Faircloth

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Matt Heilala

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Bruce Walden

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Hank Kroll

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Destry J. Payne Sr.

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Matt Claman

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Nancy Dahlstrom

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The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.**The Alaska governor primary on August 18, 2026, is a nonpartisan top-four contest with 17 candidates vying to advance to the November general election under ranked-choice voting.** Incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, creating an open race. Recent polls, including Alaska Survey Research and Change Research surveys from June–July, show Tom Begich (D) leading with support in the high teens to low 20s, followed by Bernadette Wilson (R), David Bronson (R), Click Bishop (R), and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) as the strongest contenders for the four advancement spots. Final-week factors include ongoing early voting, a multi-newsroom voter guide, candidate debates, and name recognition or party infrastructure advantages that could consolidate support among the fragmented field. Outcomes hinge on turnout patterns and last-minute shifts among undecided voters in this low-information primary environment.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$246,565
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.**The Alaska governor primary on August 18, 2026, is a nonpartisan top-four contest with 17 candidates vying to advance to the November general election under ranked-choice voting.** Incumbent Republican Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, creating an open race. Recent polls, including Alaska Survey Research and Change Research surveys from June–July, show Tom Begich (D) leading with support in the high teens to low 20s, followed by Bernadette Wilson (R), David Bronson (R), Click Bishop (R), and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) as the strongest contenders for the four advancement spots. Final-week factors include ongoing early voting, a multi-newsroom voter guide, candidate debates, and name recognition or party infrastructure advantages that could consolidate support among the fragmented field. Outcomes hinge on turnout patterns and last-minute shifts among undecided voters in this low-information primary environment.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$246,565
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Begich" at 97%, followed by "Bernadette Wilson" at 94%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" has generated $246.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is "Tom Begich" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bernadette Wilson" at 94%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.