Florida’s 22nd congressional district Republican primary on August 18 features a crowded field of self-funded candidates in an open seat reshaped by recent redistricting. Recent polling shows Belinda Keiser, Casey Askar, and Michael Carbonara locked in a statistical tie in the low teens, with more than 40 percent of likely voters undecided and the rest of the field trailing further back. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing treats the contest as competitive among the top contenders, driven by heavy personal spending, overlapping Trump-aligned messaging on issues like the economy and immigration, and the absence of major endorsements to consolidate support. With the primary just days away, late shifts in undecided voters or turnout among key blocs could quickly separate the leader.