Washington voters will decide Initiative 645 on November 3, 2026, which seeks to repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the Democratic-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson in March 2026. The measure, projected to generate over $3 billion annually starting in 2029 for education, healthcare, and other services, faces organized opposition from the governor, unions, and progressive groups that launched the “No on I-645” campaign. Supporters led by Let’s Go Washington gathered over 500,000 signatures to qualify the repeal but confront a political environment where a 2025 poll showed majority backing for the tax and recent editorial endorsements have favored retention. Legal challenges to the underlying tax and debates over the initiative’s broader language on income taxation add uncertainty, yet trader consensus reflects the structural advantages held by defenders of the new revenue source in a state with unified Democratic control of state government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Washington voters will decide Initiative 645 on November 3, 2026, which seeks to repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the Democratic-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson in March 2026. The measure, projected to generate over $3 billion annually starting in 2029 for education, healthcare, and other services, faces organized opposition from the governor, unions, and progressive groups that launched the “No on I-645” campaign. Supporters led by Let’s Go Washington gathered over 500,000 signatures to qualify the repeal but confront a political environment where a 2025 poll showed majority backing for the tax and recent editorial endorsements have favored retention. Legal challenges to the underlying tax and debates over the initiative’s broader language on income taxation add uncertainty, yet trader consensus reflects the structural advantages held by defenders of the new revenue source in a state with unified Democratic control of state government.
Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$166End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.sos.wa.gov/electionsResolver
0x65070BE91...Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Washington voters will decide Initiative 645 on November 3, 2026, which seeks to repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the Democratic-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson in March 2026. The measure, projected to generate over $3 billion annually starting in 2029 for education, healthcare, and other services, faces organized opposition from the governor, unions, and progressive groups that launched the “No on I-645” campaign. Supporters led by Let’s Go Washington gathered over 500,000 signatures to qualify the repeal but confront a political environment where a 2025 poll showed majority backing for the tax and recent editorial endorsements have favored retention. Legal challenges to the underlying tax and debates over the initiative’s broader language on income taxation add uncertainty, yet trader consensus reflects the structural advantages held by defenders of the new revenue source in a state with unified Democratic control of state government.
Initiative Measure No. 645 (I-645, filed as IP26-645) is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would repeal the state's tax on households earning over $1 million a year and prohibit future state and local taxes on income, among other items.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Volume
$166End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.sos.wa.gov/electionsResolver
0x65070BE91...Washington voters will decide Initiative 645 on November 3, 2026, which seeks to repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the Democratic-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. Bob Ferguson in March 2026. The measure, projected to generate over $3 billion annually starting in 2029 for education, healthcare, and other services, faces organized opposition from the governor, unions, and progressive groups that launched the “No on I-645” campaign. Supporters led by Let’s Go Washington gathered over 500,000 signatures to qualify the repeal but confront a political environment where a 2025 poll showed majority backing for the tax and recent editorial endorsements have favored retention. Legal challenges to the underlying tax and debates over the initiative’s broader language on income taxation add uncertainty, yet trader consensus reflects the structural advantages held by defenders of the new revenue source in a state with unified Democratic control of state government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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