Republican Rick Brattin secured the GOP nomination in Missouri’s 5th District on August 4 after prevailing in a crowded primary with an endorsement from President Trump, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver. The contest occurs under a recently enacted congressional map that significantly expands the district’s rural and suburban Republican-leaning territory beyond its former Kansas City core, producing ratings from nonpartisan analysts ranging from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. This redistricting, completed in 2025, accounts for the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at roughly 83 percent implied probability. A pending referendum effort could alter the boundaries before Election Day, though the map remains in effect for now. No public general-election polling has emerged since the primary, leaving the structural partisan shift and Cleaver’s incumbency as the primary variables traders are weighing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
$10,750 Vol.
$10,750 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
16%
$10,750 Vol.
$10,750 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$8,060 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$2,690 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Rick Brattin secured the GOP nomination in Missouri’s 5th District on August 4 after prevailing in a crowded primary with an endorsement from President Trump, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver. The contest occurs under a recently enacted congressional map that significantly expands the district’s rural and suburban Republican-leaning territory beyond its former Kansas City core, producing ratings from nonpartisan analysts ranging from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. This redistricting, completed in 2025, accounts for the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at roughly 83 percent implied probability. A pending referendum effort could alter the boundaries before Election Day, though the map remains in effect for now. No public general-election polling has emerged since the primary, leaving the structural partisan shift and Cleaver’s incumbency as the primary variables traders are weighing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$10,750End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Rick Brattin secured the GOP nomination in Missouri’s 5th District on August 4 after prevailing in a crowded primary with an endorsement from President Trump, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver. The contest occurs under a recently enacted congressional map that significantly expands the district’s rural and suburban Republican-leaning territory beyond its former Kansas City core, producing ratings from nonpartisan analysts ranging from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. This redistricting, completed in 2025, accounts for the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at roughly 83 percent implied probability. A pending referendum effort could alter the boundaries before Election Day, though the map remains in effect for now. No public general-election polling has emerged since the primary, leaving the structural partisan shift and Cleaver’s incumbency as the primary variables traders are weighing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,750End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Rick Brattin secured the GOP nomination in Missouri’s 5th District on August 4 after prevailing in a crowded primary with an endorsement from President Trump, setting up a November 3 general election matchup against longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver. The contest occurs under a recently enacted congressional map that significantly expands the district’s rural and suburban Republican-leaning territory beyond its former Kansas City core, producing ratings from nonpartisan analysts ranging from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. This redistricting, completed in 2025, accounts for the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at roughly 83 percent implied probability. A pending referendum effort could alter the boundaries before Election Day, though the map remains in effect for now. No public general-election polling has emerged since the primary, leaving the structural partisan shift and Cleaver’s incumbency as the primary variables traders are weighing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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