**Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting sufficient signatures in mid-2026 and receiving endorsement from the state Democratic Party.** However, traders assign a 64.5% probability of failure, reflecting the presence of Proposition 42—a competing measure that would prohibit new personal property taxes and retroactive levies, potentially nullifying Prop 40 if both pass and the blocker receives more votes. Additional factors include organized opposition from business groups and some Democrats citing risks of capital flight and legal challenges to the retroactive residency and valuation rules, alongside mixed polling that shows support near or below 50% in several surveys. These dynamics, combined with historical voter skepticism toward novel high-income taxes, shape the current consensus reflected in market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated36% chance
$3,627,074 Vol.
$3,627,074 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
36% chance
$3,627,074 Vol.
$3,627,074 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting sufficient signatures in mid-2026 and receiving endorsement from the state Democratic Party.** However, traders assign a 64.5% probability of failure, reflecting the presence of Proposition 42—a competing measure that would prohibit new personal property taxes and retroactive levies, potentially nullifying Prop 40 if both pass and the blocker receives more votes. Additional factors include organized opposition from business groups and some Democrats citing risks of capital flight and legal challenges to the retroactive residency and valuation rules, alongside mixed polling that shows support near or below 50% in several surveys. These dynamics, combined with historical voter skepticism toward novel high-income taxes, shape the current consensus reflected in market pricing.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,627,074End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting sufficient signatures in mid-2026 and receiving endorsement from the state Democratic Party.** However, traders assign a 64.5% probability of failure, reflecting the presence of Proposition 42—a competing measure that would prohibit new personal property taxes and retroactive levies, potentially nullifying Prop 40 if both pass and the blocker receives more votes. Additional factors include organized opposition from business groups and some Democrats citing risks of capital flight and legal challenges to the retroactive residency and valuation rules, alongside mixed polling that shows support near or below 50% in several surveys. These dynamics, combined with historical voter skepticism toward novel high-income taxes, shape the current consensus reflected in market pricing.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,627,074End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting sufficient signatures in mid-2026 and receiving endorsement from the state Democratic Party.** However, traders assign a 64.5% probability of failure, reflecting the presence of Proposition 42—a competing measure that would prohibit new personal property taxes and retroactive levies, potentially nullifying Prop 40 if both pass and the blocker receives more votes. Additional factors include organized opposition from business groups and some Democrats citing risks of capital flight and legal challenges to the retroactive residency and valuation rules, alongside mixed polling that shows support near or below 50% in several surveys. These dynamics, combined with historical voter skepticism toward novel high-income taxes, shape the current consensus reflected in market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions