**Traders assign a 79.5% probability that Alaska’s November 2026 Ballot Measure 2 will fail to repeal ranked-choice voting and top-four open primaries.** The measure, which would restore partisan primaries and repeal certain 2020 campaign disclosure rules, faces a steep fundraising gap: repeal supporters have raised roughly $750,000 while opponents have secured over $5.5 million, largely from outside donors. A nearly identical repeal initiative lost by just 737 votes in 2024, establishing a narrow but consistent baseline of voter resistance. The Alaska Supreme Court’s August 28, 2026 ruling largely upheld the Division of Elections’ ballot language with one minor addition on gubernatorial tickets, clearing the path for the vote without altering the underlying political dynamics. These factors—funding imbalance, recent precedent, and procedural finality—anchor the current trader consensus that the repeal effort will again fall short.