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icon for US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

icon for US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

7% chance
Polymarket

$19,357 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$19,357 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. **House passage of a limited measure in July 2026 has not shifted expectations for a comprehensive congressional stock-trading ban before 2027.** The Stop Insider Trading Act (H.R. 7008), passed 232-198, bars members, spouses, and dependents from buying new publicly traded stocks and adds advance-notice rules for sales but leaves existing holdings intact and falls short of a full divestiture requirement. The bill now moves to the Senate, where prospects remain uncertain amid committee referral, potential holds, and competing priorities in the 119th Congress. Earlier Senate proposals, including versions introduced by Senators Cassidy and Ricketts, have not advanced to floor consideration. With the current session winding down and historical patterns showing repeated stalls on ethics measures despite public support, traders assign only a low probability that both chambers will enact and the president will sign a stricter ban with an effective date before January 1, 2027. Any final legislation would also face implementation timelines that could push meaningful restrictions past the market’s cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,357
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. **House passage of a limited measure in July 2026 has not shifted expectations for a comprehensive congressional stock-trading ban before 2027.** The Stop Insider Trading Act (H.R. 7008), passed 232-198, bars members, spouses, and dependents from buying new publicly traded stocks and adds advance-notice rules for sales but leaves existing holdings intact and falls short of a full divestiture requirement. The bill now moves to the Senate, where prospects remain uncertain amid committee referral, potential holds, and competing priorities in the 119th Congress. Earlier Senate proposals, including versions introduced by Senators Cassidy and Ricketts, have not advanced to floor consideration. With the current session winding down and historical patterns showing repeated stalls on ethics measures despite public support, traders assign only a low probability that both chambers will enact and the president will sign a stricter ban with an effective date before January 1, 2027. Any final legislation would also face implementation timelines that could push meaningful restrictions past the market’s cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,357
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" has generated $19.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.