The Trump administration has maintained and expanded its maximum pressure campaign on Cuba through targeted sanctions on the island’s energy sector since January 2026, including executive orders authorizing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, naval interdiction of tankers, and the June designation of state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo to the SDN list. These measures followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Nicolás Maduro’s capture and have produced sustained fuel shortages, multiple nationwide blackouts, and economic strain, with further restrictions announced in July blocking even humanitarian fuel imports. No official statements or diplomatic signals indicate imminent relief or general licenses for oil transactions; instead, policy continues to emphasize secondary sanctions on foreign entities and support for regime change objectives by year-end. Scheduled congressional reviews, humanitarian aid discussions, or any shift in bilateral talks remain the primary near-term variables that could alter the trajectory before late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,696 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
40%
December 31
50%
$46,696 Vol.
September 30
$43 Vol.
40%
December 31
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration has maintained and expanded its maximum pressure campaign on Cuba through targeted sanctions on the island’s energy sector since January 2026, including executive orders authorizing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, naval interdiction of tankers, and the June designation of state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo to the SDN list. These measures followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Nicolás Maduro’s capture and have produced sustained fuel shortages, multiple nationwide blackouts, and economic strain, with further restrictions announced in July blocking even humanitarian fuel imports. No official statements or diplomatic signals indicate imminent relief or general licenses for oil transactions; instead, policy continues to emphasize secondary sanctions on foreign entities and support for regime change objectives by year-end. Scheduled congressional reviews, humanitarian aid discussions, or any shift in bilateral talks remain the primary near-term variables that could alter the trajectory before late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$46,696End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration has maintained and expanded its maximum pressure campaign on Cuba through targeted sanctions on the island’s energy sector since January 2026, including executive orders authorizing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, naval interdiction of tankers, and the June designation of state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo to the SDN list. These measures followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Nicolás Maduro’s capture and have produced sustained fuel shortages, multiple nationwide blackouts, and economic strain, with further restrictions announced in July blocking even humanitarian fuel imports. No official statements or diplomatic signals indicate imminent relief or general licenses for oil transactions; instead, policy continues to emphasize secondary sanctions on foreign entities and support for regime change objectives by year-end. Scheduled congressional reviews, humanitarian aid discussions, or any shift in bilateral talks remain the primary near-term variables that could alter the trajectory before late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,696End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration has maintained and expanded its maximum pressure campaign on Cuba through targeted sanctions on the island’s energy sector since January 2026, including executive orders authorizing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, naval interdiction of tankers, and the June designation of state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo to the SDN list. These measures followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Nicolás Maduro’s capture and have produced sustained fuel shortages, multiple nationwide blackouts, and economic strain, with further restrictions announced in July blocking even humanitarian fuel imports. No official statements or diplomatic signals indicate imminent relief or general licenses for oil transactions; instead, policy continues to emphasize secondary sanctions on foreign entities and support for regime change objectives by year-end. Scheduled congressional reviews, humanitarian aid discussions, or any shift in bilateral talks remain the primary near-term variables that could alter the trajectory before late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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