The US Treasury revoked General License X on July 7, 2026, after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, ending the 60-day sanctions waiver issued in June that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum product sales through August 21. This followed an earlier 30-day relief in March aimed at easing global oil prices amid supply concerns. Renewed enforcement reflects heightened geopolitical risks overriding prior efforts to stabilize energy markets and curb volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. With sanctions reinstated and wind-down deadlines passed, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns negligible implied probability to near-term reissuance, driven by persistent regional instability and enforcement priorities rather than immediate macroeconomic easing. Key upcoming catalysts include any FOMC-linked oil price signals or diplomatic shifts before late-August resolution deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$213,285 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
18%
$213,285 Vol.
August 31
$124,403 Vol.
18%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.The US Treasury revoked General License X on July 7, 2026, after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, ending the 60-day sanctions waiver issued in June that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum product sales through August 21. This followed an earlier 30-day relief in March aimed at easing global oil prices amid supply concerns. Renewed enforcement reflects heightened geopolitical risks overriding prior efforts to stabilize energy markets and curb volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. With sanctions reinstated and wind-down deadlines passed, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns negligible implied probability to near-term reissuance, driven by persistent regional instability and enforcement priorities rather than immediate macroeconomic easing. Key upcoming catalysts include any FOMC-linked oil price signals or diplomatic shifts before late-August resolution deadlines.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
Volume
$213,285End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.The US Treasury revoked General License X on July 7, 2026, after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, ending the 60-day sanctions waiver issued in June that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum product sales through August 21. This followed an earlier 30-day relief in March aimed at easing global oil prices amid supply concerns. Renewed enforcement reflects heightened geopolitical risks overriding prior efforts to stabilize energy markets and curb volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. With sanctions reinstated and wind-down deadlines passed, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns negligible implied probability to near-term reissuance, driven by persistent regional instability and enforcement priorities rather than immediate macroeconomic easing. Key upcoming catalysts include any FOMC-linked oil price signals or diplomatic shifts before late-August resolution deadlines.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$213,285End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US Treasury revoked General License X on July 7, 2026, after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, ending the 60-day sanctions waiver issued in June that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum product sales through August 21. This followed an earlier 30-day relief in March aimed at easing global oil prices amid supply concerns. Renewed enforcement reflects heightened geopolitical risks overriding prior efforts to stabilize energy markets and curb volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. With sanctions reinstated and wind-down deadlines passed, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns negligible implied probability to near-term reissuance, driven by persistent regional instability and enforcement priorities rather than immediate macroeconomic easing. Key upcoming catalysts include any FOMC-linked oil price signals or diplomatic shifts before late-August resolution deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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