TX-30 covers urban Dallas and surrounding areas with a Cook PVI of D+25 and a population that is majority Black and Hispanic. These demographics have produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including under retiring incumbent Jasmine Crockett. After her March 2026 Democratic primary victory, nominee Frederick Haynes faces Republican opponents in a November general election rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus at 95% for the Democratic Party reflects the district's structural advantage and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling shifts. A national Republican surge, nominee-specific controversy, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical results and current ratings indicate limited scope for such changes before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
$21,735 Vol.
$21,735 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$21,735 Vol.
$21,735 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,578 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$16,157 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).TX-30 covers urban Dallas and surrounding areas with a Cook PVI of D+25 and a population that is majority Black and Hispanic. These demographics have produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including under retiring incumbent Jasmine Crockett. After her March 2026 Democratic primary victory, nominee Frederick Haynes faces Republican opponents in a November general election rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus at 95% for the Democratic Party reflects the district's structural advantage and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling shifts. A national Republican surge, nominee-specific controversy, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical results and current ratings indicate limited scope for such changes before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$21,735End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).TX-30 covers urban Dallas and surrounding areas with a Cook PVI of D+25 and a population that is majority Black and Hispanic. These demographics have produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including under retiring incumbent Jasmine Crockett. After her March 2026 Democratic primary victory, nominee Frederick Haynes faces Republican opponents in a November general election rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus at 95% for the Democratic Party reflects the district's structural advantage and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling shifts. A national Republican surge, nominee-specific controversy, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical results and current ratings indicate limited scope for such changes before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,735End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...TX-30 covers urban Dallas and surrounding areas with a Cook PVI of D+25 and a population that is majority Black and Hispanic. These demographics have produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including under retiring incumbent Jasmine Crockett. After her March 2026 Democratic primary victory, nominee Frederick Haynes faces Republican opponents in a November general election rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus at 95% for the Democratic Party reflects the district's structural advantage and absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling shifts. A national Republican surge, nominee-specific controversy, or sharply depressed Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical results and current ratings indicate limited scope for such changes before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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