Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Paul Nolley. Both candidates advanced unopposed through their March 17 primaries. The district’s partisan voting index favors Republicans by double digits, consistent with LaHood’s prior victories and the seat’s historical performance. His incumbency advantage, established fundraising edge, and family name recognition in the region reinforce trader consensus around a Republican outcome. A Democratic win would require an unusually strong national environment, significant local shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, or an unforeseen development affecting the incumbent between now and Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$28,809 Vol.
$28,809 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
$28,809 Vol.
$28,809 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$11,705 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$17,104 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Paul Nolley. Both candidates advanced unopposed through their March 17 primaries. The district’s partisan voting index favors Republicans by double digits, consistent with LaHood’s prior victories and the seat’s historical performance. His incumbency advantage, established fundraising edge, and family name recognition in the region reinforce trader consensus around a Republican outcome. A Democratic win would require an unusually strong national environment, significant local shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, or an unforeseen development affecting the incumbent between now and Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$28,809End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Paul Nolley. Both candidates advanced unopposed through their March 17 primaries. The district’s partisan voting index favors Republicans by double digits, consistent with LaHood’s prior victories and the seat’s historical performance. His incumbency advantage, established fundraising edge, and family name recognition in the region reinforce trader consensus around a Republican outcome. A Democratic win would require an unusually strong national environment, significant local shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, or an unforeseen development affecting the incumbent between now and Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,809End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Paul Nolley. Both candidates advanced unopposed through their March 17 primaries. The district’s partisan voting index favors Republicans by double digits, consistent with LaHood’s prior victories and the seat’s historical performance. His incumbency advantage, established fundraising edge, and family name recognition in the region reinforce trader consensus around a Republican outcome. A Democratic win would require an unusually strong national environment, significant local shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, or an unforeseen development affecting the incumbent between now and Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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