Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith secured the top spot in Washington's August 4, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 47-50% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election. The 9th district, covering southern and eastern Seattle suburbs including Renton, Kent, and Federal Way, has delivered Democratic margins above 60% in recent cycles, consistent with its partisan composition. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting limited Republican path-to-victory and Smith's established incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors; a realistic shift would require major late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or national partisan wave substantially altering turnout patterns in this safely blue seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-09 House Election Winner
WA-09 House Election Winner
$29,095 Vol.
$29,095 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$29,095 Vol.
$29,095 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,539 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$17,556 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith secured the top spot in Washington's August 4, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 47-50% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election. The 9th district, covering southern and eastern Seattle suburbs including Renton, Kent, and Federal Way, has delivered Democratic margins above 60% in recent cycles, consistent with its partisan composition. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting limited Republican path-to-victory and Smith's established incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors; a realistic shift would require major late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or national partisan wave substantially altering turnout patterns in this safely blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$29,095End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith secured the top spot in Washington's August 4, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 47-50% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election. The 9th district, covering southern and eastern Seattle suburbs including Renton, Kent, and Federal Way, has delivered Democratic margins above 60% in recent cycles, consistent with its partisan composition. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting limited Republican path-to-victory and Smith's established incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors; a realistic shift would require major late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or national partisan wave substantially altering turnout patterns in this safely blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,095End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith secured the top spot in Washington's August 4, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 47-50% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election. The 9th district, covering southern and eastern Seattle suburbs including Renton, Kent, and Federal Way, has delivered Democratic margins above 60% in recent cycles, consistent with its partisan composition. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting limited Republican path-to-victory and Smith's established incumbency advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural factors; a realistic shift would require major late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or national partisan wave substantially altering turnout patterns in this safely blue seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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