Redistricting enacted in 2025 shifted Texas’s 32nd congressional district from a Democratic stronghold into a Republican-leaning seat stretching from Dallas into East Texas, creating the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 80.5% implied probability. The open seat, vacated by Representative Julie Johnson’s move to another district, drew a crowded Republican primary that concluded with Jace Yarbrough securing the nomination. Nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the race as Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s new partisan voting index. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios faces structural headwinds in a district where recent polling and historical base rates favor the GOP nominee by double-digit margins. No major campaign developments or external events in the past month have materially altered trader assessments ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-32 House Election Winner
TX-32 House Election Winner
$29,072 Vol.
$29,072 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
18%
$29,072 Vol.
$29,072 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$27,236 Vol.
80%
Democratic Party
$1,836 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted in 2025 shifted Texas’s 32nd congressional district from a Democratic stronghold into a Republican-leaning seat stretching from Dallas into East Texas, creating the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 80.5% implied probability. The open seat, vacated by Representative Julie Johnson’s move to another district, drew a crowded Republican primary that concluded with Jace Yarbrough securing the nomination. Nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the race as Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s new partisan voting index. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios faces structural headwinds in a district where recent polling and historical base rates favor the GOP nominee by double-digit margins. No major campaign developments or external events in the past month have materially altered trader assessments ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$29,072End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted in 2025 shifted Texas’s 32nd congressional district from a Democratic stronghold into a Republican-leaning seat stretching from Dallas into East Texas, creating the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 80.5% implied probability. The open seat, vacated by Representative Julie Johnson’s move to another district, drew a crowded Republican primary that concluded with Jace Yarbrough securing the nomination. Nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the race as Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s new partisan voting index. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios faces structural headwinds in a district where recent polling and historical base rates favor the GOP nominee by double-digit margins. No major campaign developments or external events in the past month have materially altered trader assessments ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,072End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting enacted in 2025 shifted Texas’s 32nd congressional district from a Democratic stronghold into a Republican-leaning seat stretching from Dallas into East Texas, creating the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 80.5% implied probability. The open seat, vacated by Representative Julie Johnson’s move to another district, drew a crowded Republican primary that concluded with Jace Yarbrough securing the nomination. Nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the race as Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with the district’s new partisan voting index. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios faces structural headwinds in a district where recent polling and historical base rates favor the GOP nominee by double-digit margins. No major campaign developments or external events in the past month have materially altered trader assessments ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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