Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer faces Republican Sean Kirrane in New Jersey's 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The seat's voter registration edge for Democrats, combined with Gottheimer's consistent reelection margins near 55 percent in prior cycles and substantial fundraising lead, anchors the current trader consensus. Primaries concluded in June with both nominees advancing unopposed or with minimal opposition, leaving no late disruptions. The district's northern New Jersey footprint, spanning Bergen and Sussex counties, has shown stable partisan leanings favoring Democrats in recent House elections. Absent major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or national midterm waves altering local dynamics, the implied probabilities reflect these structural and incumbency advantages heading into the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-05 House Election Winner
NJ-05 House Election Winner
$12,875 Vol.
$12,875 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
11%
$12,875 Vol.
$12,875 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,441 Vol.
89%
Republican Party
$434 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer faces Republican Sean Kirrane in New Jersey's 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The seat's voter registration edge for Democrats, combined with Gottheimer's consistent reelection margins near 55 percent in prior cycles and substantial fundraising lead, anchors the current trader consensus. Primaries concluded in June with both nominees advancing unopposed or with minimal opposition, leaving no late disruptions. The district's northern New Jersey footprint, spanning Bergen and Sussex counties, has shown stable partisan leanings favoring Democrats in recent House elections. Absent major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or national midterm waves altering local dynamics, the implied probabilities reflect these structural and incumbency advantages heading into the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$12,875End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer faces Republican Sean Kirrane in New Jersey's 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The seat's voter registration edge for Democrats, combined with Gottheimer's consistent reelection margins near 55 percent in prior cycles and substantial fundraising lead, anchors the current trader consensus. Primaries concluded in June with both nominees advancing unopposed or with minimal opposition, leaving no late disruptions. The district's northern New Jersey footprint, spanning Bergen and Sussex counties, has shown stable partisan leanings favoring Democrats in recent House elections. Absent major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or national midterm waves altering local dynamics, the implied probabilities reflect these structural and incumbency advantages heading into the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,875End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer faces Republican Sean Kirrane in New Jersey's 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The seat's voter registration edge for Democrats, combined with Gottheimer's consistent reelection margins near 55 percent in prior cycles and substantial fundraising lead, anchors the current trader consensus. Primaries concluded in June with both nominees advancing unopposed or with minimal opposition, leaving no late disruptions. The district's northern New Jersey footprint, spanning Bergen and Sussex counties, has shown stable partisan leanings favoring Democrats in recent House elections. Absent major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or national midterm waves altering local dynamics, the implied probabilities reflect these structural and incumbency advantages heading into the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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