Traders see a wide-open contest for third place among AI agent labs because no single contender has pulled decisively ahead in recent benchmarks or deployments. Anthropic’s Claude Opus series and OpenAI’s Operator/Codex agents continue to top SWE-bench and GAIA leaderboards with strong tool-use and computer-use scores, leaving the next tier tightly bunched. Google DeepMind’s Gemini 3 agents, Microsoft Copilot enterprise integrations, and Meta’s open-weight efforts show competitive but not dominant results, while xAI, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Moonshot each post credible gains in coding and multimodal agent tasks without clear separation. The two-week window to end-August leaves little time for new model releases or major benchmark updates to shift sentiment, keeping implied probabilities clustered near 50% for most listed labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 50%
DeepSeek 50%
Z.ai 36%
Meituan 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
50%
DeepSeek
50%
Z.ai
36%
Meituan
34%
Alibaba
33%
OpenAI
29%
Xiaomi
28%
SpaceXAI
26%
Meta
25%
MiniMax
25%
Nvidia
25%
ByteDance
25%
Baidu
25%
Amazon
25%
Mistral
25%
Microsoft
25%
Anthropic
24%
Moonshot
37%
Google 50%
DeepSeek 50%
Z.ai 36%
Meituan 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
$20 Vol.
50%
DeepSeek
$20 Vol.
50%
Z.ai
$20 Vol.
36%
Meituan
$34 Vol.
34%
Alibaba
$20 Vol.
33%
OpenAI
$30 Vol.
29%
Xiaomi
$20 Vol.
28%
SpaceXAI
$20 Vol.
26%
Meta
$20 Vol.
25%
MiniMax
$68 Vol.
25%
Nvidia
$72 Vol.
25%
ByteDance
$51 Vol.
25%
Baidu
$79 Vol.
25%
Amazon
$84 Vol.
25%
Mistral
$53 Vol.
25%
Microsoft
$64 Vol.
25%
Anthropic
$76 Vol.
24%
Moonshot
$112 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a wide-open contest for third place among AI agent labs because no single contender has pulled decisively ahead in recent benchmarks or deployments. Anthropic’s Claude Opus series and OpenAI’s Operator/Codex agents continue to top SWE-bench and GAIA leaderboards with strong tool-use and computer-use scores, leaving the next tier tightly bunched. Google DeepMind’s Gemini 3 agents, Microsoft Copilot enterprise integrations, and Meta’s open-weight efforts show competitive but not dominant results, while xAI, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Moonshot each post credible gains in coding and multimodal agent tasks without clear separation. The two-week window to end-August leaves little time for new model releases or major benchmark updates to shift sentiment, keeping implied probabilities clustered near 50% for most listed labs.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$864End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a wide-open contest for third place among AI agent labs because no single contender has pulled decisively ahead in recent benchmarks or deployments. Anthropic’s Claude Opus series and OpenAI’s Operator/Codex agents continue to top SWE-bench and GAIA leaderboards with strong tool-use and computer-use scores, leaving the next tier tightly bunched. Google DeepMind’s Gemini 3 agents, Microsoft Copilot enterprise integrations, and Meta’s open-weight efforts show competitive but not dominant results, while xAI, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Moonshot each post credible gains in coding and multimodal agent tasks without clear separation. The two-week window to end-August leaves little time for new model releases or major benchmark updates to shift sentiment, keeping implied probabilities clustered near 50% for most listed labs.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$864End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a wide-open contest for third place among AI agent labs because no single contender has pulled decisively ahead in recent benchmarks or deployments. Anthropic’s Claude Opus series and OpenAI’s Operator/Codex agents continue to top SWE-bench and GAIA leaderboards with strong tool-use and computer-use scores, leaving the next tier tightly bunched. Google DeepMind’s Gemini 3 agents, Microsoft Copilot enterprise integrations, and Meta’s open-weight efforts show competitive but not dominant results, while xAI, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Moonshot each post credible gains in coding and multimodal agent tasks without clear separation. The two-week window to end-August leaves little time for new model releases or major benchmark updates to shift sentiment, keeping implied probabilities clustered near 50% for most listed labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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