Recent model releases and agent-specific benchmarks explain the tight clustering around Moonshot, Anthropic, and DeepSeek for third place. Moonshot’s July 2026 Kimi K3 launch delivered frontier-level agentic coding and tool use at lower cost with open weights, boosting its positioning after earlier Kimi versions powered developer tools. Anthropic maintains strong leadership in demonstrated agent capabilities on benchmarks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench, despite prior accusations of distillation targeting its models. DeepSeek’s ongoing V-series updates sustain competitive pricing and performance in reasoning and coding agents. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard at end-September, traders weigh these labs’ relative momentum against OpenAI’s GPT releases and other contenders amid rapid iteration in the agent space.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Z.ai 16%
OpenAI 15%
Anthropic 11%
ByteDance 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Z.ai
16%
OpenAI
15%
Anthropic
24%
ByteDance
8%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
6%
Microsoft
5%
5%
Meta
4%
Alibaba
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
Amazon
4%
Nvidia
4%
MiniMax
3%
Baidu
3%
Xiaomi
3%
DeepSeek
25%
Moonshot
27%
Z.ai 16%
OpenAI 15%
Anthropic 11%
ByteDance 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Z.ai
$79 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$79 Vol.
15%
Anthropic
$59 Vol.
24%
ByteDance
$60 Vol.
8%
Mistral
$72 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$20 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$20 Vol.
5%
$20 Vol.
5%
Meta
$20 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$34 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$20 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$33 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$20 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$20 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$25 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$69 Vol.
25%
Moonshot
$79 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and agent-specific benchmarks explain the tight clustering around Moonshot, Anthropic, and DeepSeek for third place. Moonshot’s July 2026 Kimi K3 launch delivered frontier-level agentic coding and tool use at lower cost with open weights, boosting its positioning after earlier Kimi versions powered developer tools. Anthropic maintains strong leadership in demonstrated agent capabilities on benchmarks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench, despite prior accusations of distillation targeting its models. DeepSeek’s ongoing V-series updates sustain competitive pricing and performance in reasoning and coding agents. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard at end-September, traders weigh these labs’ relative momentum against OpenAI’s GPT releases and other contenders amid rapid iteration in the agent space.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$784End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and agent-specific benchmarks explain the tight clustering around Moonshot, Anthropic, and DeepSeek for third place. Moonshot’s July 2026 Kimi K3 launch delivered frontier-level agentic coding and tool use at lower cost with open weights, boosting its positioning after earlier Kimi versions powered developer tools. Anthropic maintains strong leadership in demonstrated agent capabilities on benchmarks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench, despite prior accusations of distillation targeting its models. DeepSeek’s ongoing V-series updates sustain competitive pricing and performance in reasoning and coding agents. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard at end-September, traders weigh these labs’ relative momentum against OpenAI’s GPT releases and other contenders amid rapid iteration in the agent space.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$784End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and agent-specific benchmarks explain the tight clustering around Moonshot, Anthropic, and DeepSeek for third place. Moonshot’s July 2026 Kimi K3 launch delivered frontier-level agentic coding and tool use at lower cost with open weights, boosting its positioning after earlier Kimi versions powered developer tools. Anthropic maintains strong leadership in demonstrated agent capabilities on benchmarks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench, despite prior accusations of distillation targeting its models. DeepSeek’s ongoing V-series updates sustain competitive pricing and performance in reasoning and coding agents. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard at end-September, traders weigh these labs’ relative momentum against OpenAI’s GPT releases and other contenders amid rapid iteration in the agent space.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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