Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal party list on August 10, 2026, overturning earlier Central Election Commission registration after a challenge by the Rodina party over alleged campaign spending and funding violations. This removes the party’s primary route to proportional-representation seats in the September 18–20 State Duma elections. Historically, Yabloko has polled well below the 5 percent threshold required for Duma entry via party lists, and recent candidate disqualifications plus restricted opposition activity further limit its reach. The near-certain trader consensus reflects these structural and legal barriers. An appeal succeeding before election day or last-minute procedural reversals remain the only narrow pathways that could reopen participation, though such outcomes appear improbable given institutional patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
2% chance
$41,591 Vol.
$41,591 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
2% chance
$41,591 Vol.
$41,591 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal party list on August 10, 2026, overturning earlier Central Election Commission registration after a challenge by the Rodina party over alleged campaign spending and funding violations. This removes the party’s primary route to proportional-representation seats in the September 18–20 State Duma elections. Historically, Yabloko has polled well below the 5 percent threshold required for Duma entry via party lists, and recent candidate disqualifications plus restricted opposition activity further limit its reach. The near-certain trader consensus reflects these structural and legal barriers. An appeal succeeding before election day or last-minute procedural reversals remain the only narrow pathways that could reopen participation, though such outcomes appear improbable given institutional patterns.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$41,591End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal party list on August 10, 2026, overturning earlier Central Election Commission registration after a challenge by the Rodina party over alleged campaign spending and funding violations. This removes the party’s primary route to proportional-representation seats in the September 18–20 State Duma elections. Historically, Yabloko has polled well below the 5 percent threshold required for Duma entry via party lists, and recent candidate disqualifications plus restricted opposition activity further limit its reach. The near-certain trader consensus reflects these structural and legal barriers. An appeal succeeding before election day or last-minute procedural reversals remain the only narrow pathways that could reopen participation, though such outcomes appear improbable given institutional patterns.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$41,591End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal party list on August 10, 2026, overturning earlier Central Election Commission registration after a challenge by the Rodina party over alleged campaign spending and funding violations. This removes the party’s primary route to proportional-representation seats in the September 18–20 State Duma elections. Historically, Yabloko has polled well below the 5 percent threshold required for Duma entry via party lists, and recent candidate disqualifications plus restricted opposition activity further limit its reach. The near-certain trader consensus reflects these structural and legal barriers. An appeal succeeding before election day or last-minute procedural reversals remain the only narrow pathways that could reopen participation, though such outcomes appear improbable given institutional patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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