Russia’s Supreme Court on August 10 upheld a Rodina party lawsuit and canceled Yabloko’s federal candidate list registration for the September State Duma elections, citing alleged copyright violations and indirect foreign funding. This followed earlier Central Election Commission registration and came after Yabloko positioned itself as the only party openly advocating negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict. Traders assign 97% probability to effective exclusion by September 17 because the ruling came from Russia’s highest court days before voting, appeals face narrow procedural windows, and comparable opposition disqualifications have stood in recent cycles. An appeal hearing scheduled for August 17 or narrow survival of single-mandate candidacies could still alter the formal status, though neither has historically reversed party-list removals of this type.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated97% chance
$282,197 Vol.
$282,197 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
97% chance
$282,197 Vol.
$282,197 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Russia’s Supreme Court on August 10 upheld a Rodina party lawsuit and canceled Yabloko’s federal candidate list registration for the September State Duma elections, citing alleged copyright violations and indirect foreign funding. This followed earlier Central Election Commission registration and came after Yabloko positioned itself as the only party openly advocating negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict. Traders assign 97% probability to effective exclusion by September 17 because the ruling came from Russia’s highest court days before voting, appeals face narrow procedural windows, and comparable opposition disqualifications have stood in recent cycles. An appeal hearing scheduled for August 17 or narrow survival of single-mandate candidacies could still alter the formal status, though neither has historically reversed party-list removals of this type.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$282,197End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Russia’s Supreme Court on August 10 upheld a Rodina party lawsuit and canceled Yabloko’s federal candidate list registration for the September State Duma elections, citing alleged copyright violations and indirect foreign funding. This followed earlier Central Election Commission registration and came after Yabloko positioned itself as the only party openly advocating negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict. Traders assign 97% probability to effective exclusion by September 17 because the ruling came from Russia’s highest court days before voting, appeals face narrow procedural windows, and comparable opposition disqualifications have stood in recent cycles. An appeal hearing scheduled for August 17 or narrow survival of single-mandate candidacies could still alter the formal status, though neither has historically reversed party-list removals of this type.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$282,197End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s Supreme Court on August 10 upheld a Rodina party lawsuit and canceled Yabloko’s federal candidate list registration for the September State Duma elections, citing alleged copyright violations and indirect foreign funding. This followed earlier Central Election Commission registration and came after Yabloko positioned itself as the only party openly advocating negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict. Traders assign 97% probability to effective exclusion by September 17 because the ruling came from Russia’s highest court days before voting, appeals face narrow procedural windows, and comparable opposition disqualifications have stood in recent cycles. An appeal hearing scheduled for August 17 or narrow survival of single-mandate candidacies could still alter the formal status, though neither has historically reversed party-list removals of this type.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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