With the 2027 Oscars cycle still in its infancy in August 2026, the Best Original Screenplay market reflects a wide-open field where no film has yet secured decisive momentum. Wild Horse Nine leads at 37.5% implied probability thanks to Martin McDonagh’s track record of sharp, awards-caliber original scripts and its stacked cast, positioning it as the current consensus frontrunner ahead of release. Lower-probability contenders such as Obsession, Digger, and The Debut sit in single or low double digits, awaiting festival premieres, reviews, and guild attention to clarify their paths. Historical patterns show that early buzz often shifts dramatically once critics’ groups and the WGA weigh in, leaving room for late surges or upsets in this still-fluid category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Wild Horse Nine 38%
Obsession 13%
Digger 11%
Fjord 9%
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Wild Horse Nine
38%
Obsession
13%
Digger
11%
Fjord
9%
The Drama
5%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
5%
The Invite
5%
Josephine
5%
A Place in Hell
4%
The Odyssey
3%
Club Kid
3%
Elsinore
2%
Fatherland
2%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
8%
The Black Ball
8%
Forgotten Island
1%
The Debut
8%
Wild Horse Nine 38%
Obsession 13%
Digger 11%
Fjord 9%
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Wild Horse Nine
$10,032 Vol.
38%
Obsession
$124 Vol.
13%
Digger
$333 Vol.
11%
Fjord
$87 Vol.
9%
The Drama
$39 Vol.
5%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
$59 Vol.
5%
The Invite
$39 Vol.
5%
Josephine
$59 Vol.
5%
A Place in Hell
$59 Vol.
4%
The Odyssey
$59 Vol.
3%
Club Kid
$43 Vol.
3%
Elsinore
$39 Vol.
2%
Fatherland
$39 Vol.
2%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$106 Vol.
8%
The Black Ball
$97 Vol.
8%
Forgotten Island
$39 Vol.
1%
The Debut
$113 Vol.
8%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2027 Oscars cycle still in its infancy in August 2026, the Best Original Screenplay market reflects a wide-open field where no film has yet secured decisive momentum. Wild Horse Nine leads at 37.5% implied probability thanks to Martin McDonagh’s track record of sharp, awards-caliber original scripts and its stacked cast, positioning it as the current consensus frontrunner ahead of release. Lower-probability contenders such as Obsession, Digger, and The Debut sit in single or low double digits, awaiting festival premieres, reviews, and guild attention to clarify their paths. Historical patterns show that early buzz often shifts dramatically once critics’ groups and the WGA weigh in, leaving room for late surges or upsets in this still-fluid category.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ET
Volume
$11,370End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2027 Oscars cycle still in its infancy in August 2026, the Best Original Screenplay market reflects a wide-open field where no film has yet secured decisive momentum. Wild Horse Nine leads at 37.5% implied probability thanks to Martin McDonagh’s track record of sharp, awards-caliber original scripts and its stacked cast, positioning it as the current consensus frontrunner ahead of release. Lower-probability contenders such as Obsession, Digger, and The Debut sit in single or low double digits, awaiting festival premieres, reviews, and guild attention to clarify their paths. Historical patterns show that early buzz often shifts dramatically once critics’ groups and the WGA weigh in, leaving room for late surges or upsets in this still-fluid category.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,370End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With the 2027 Oscars cycle still in its infancy in August 2026, the Best Original Screenplay market reflects a wide-open field where no film has yet secured decisive momentum. Wild Horse Nine leads at 37.5% implied probability thanks to Martin McDonagh’s track record of sharp, awards-caliber original scripts and its stacked cast, positioning it as the current consensus frontrunner ahead of release. Lower-probability contenders such as Obsession, Digger, and The Debut sit in single or low double digits, awaiting festival premieres, reviews, and guild attention to clarify their paths. Historical patterns show that early buzz often shifts dramatically once critics’ groups and the WGA weigh in, leaving room for late surges or upsets in this still-fluid category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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