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icon for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

icon for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Tom Cruise 29%

Matt Damon 28%

Andrew Scott 18%

Robert Pattinson 12.0%

Polymarket

$71,738 Vol.

Tom Cruise 29%

Matt Damon 28%

Andrew Scott 18%

Robert Pattinson 12.0%

Polymarket

$71,738 Vol.

icon for Tom Cruise

Tom Cruise

$8,037 Vol.

29%

icon for Matt Damon

Matt Damon

$27,054 Vol.

28%

icon for Andrew Scott

Andrew Scott

$7,611 Vol.

18%

icon for Robert Pattinson

Robert Pattinson

$1,823 Vol.

8%

icon for Sebastian Stan

Sebastian Stan

$1,909 Vol.

9%

icon for John Malkovich

John Malkovich

$1,211 Vol.

8%

icon for Ryan Gosling

Ryan Gosling

$3,230 Vol.

3%

icon for Pedro Pascal

Pedro Pascal

$1,709 Vol.

2%

icon for Timothée Chalamet

Timothée Chalamet

$1,693 Vol.

2%

icon for Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell

$2,095 Vol.

1%

icon for Brad Pitt

Brad Pitt

$6,764 Vol.

1%

icon for Jeremy Strong

Jeremy Strong

$1,637 Vol.

1%

icon for Jaafar Jackson

Jaafar Jackson

$1,701 Vol.

1%

icon for Robert Aramayo

Robert Aramayo

$1,335 Vol.

1%

icon for Javier Bardem

Javier Bardem

$1,083 Vol.

1%

icon for Josh O'Connor

Josh O'Connor

$1,061 Vol.

1%

icon for John Turturro

John Turturro

$918 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adam Driver

Adam Driver

$866 Vol.

<1%

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2027 Oscars Best Actor race still months from major 2026 releases and precursor awards, trader consensus reflects a wide-open field where no single performer has yet established clear momentum. Tom Cruise and Matt Damon lead at 29% and 28% implied probability on the strength of anticipated projects and past awards pedigrees, while Andrew Scott sits at 17.5% and Sebastian Stan at 8.3% amid ongoing buzz around their upcoming films. The balance of the market, including lower-probability names such as Robert Pattinson and Timothée Chalamet, shows limited differentiation until guild nominations, festival premieres, and critical reception provide clearer signals later this year.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$71,738
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2027 Oscars Best Actor race still months from major 2026 releases and precursor awards, trader consensus reflects a wide-open field where no single performer has yet established clear momentum. Tom Cruise and Matt Damon lead at 29% and 28% implied probability on the strength of anticipated projects and past awards pedigrees, while Andrew Scott sits at 17.5% and Sebastian Stan at 8.3% amid ongoing buzz around their upcoming films. The balance of the market, including lower-probability names such as Robert Pattinson and Timothée Chalamet, shows limited differentiation until guild nominations, festival premieres, and critical reception provide clearer signals later this year.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$71,738
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Cruise" at 29%, followed by "Matt Damon" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 29¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" has generated $71.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is "Tom Cruise" at 29%, meaning the market assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Damon" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.