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Elections·Main Election

Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

icon for Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Elections·Main Election

Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Željka Cvijanović 87%

Siniša Karan 2.7%

Marinko Božović 2.3%

Branko Blanuša 1.6%

Polymarket

$32,076 Vol.

Željka Cvijanović 87%

Siniša Karan 2.7%

Marinko Božović 2.3%

Branko Blanuša 1.6%

Polymarket

$32,076 Vol.

icon for Željka Cvijanović

Željka Cvijanović

$27,074 Vol.

87%

icon for Siniša Karan

Siniša Karan

$1,410 Vol.

3%

icon for Marinko Božović

Marinko Božović

$300 Vol.

2%

icon for Branko Blanuša

Branko Blanuša

$1,068 Vol.

2%

icon for Draško Stanivuković

Draško Stanivuković

$939 Vol.

1%

icon for Nebojša Vukanović

Nebojša Vukanović

$1,286 Vol.

1%

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Željka Cvijanović, the incumbent Serb member of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite Presidency and SNSD standard-bearer, holds an 87% market share ahead of the 4 October 2026 general election. Her position stems from SNSD’s entrenched dominance in Republika Srpska, where voters directly select the Serb seat, reinforced by the party’s recent narrow victories in the 2025 RS presidential contest and its subsequent rerun. Opposition figures such as Marinko Božović (SDS), Branko Blanuša, Nebojša Vukanović, Siniša Karan, and Draško Stanivuković trail far behind, reflecting limited unified challenge and the structural advantages of incumbency within the entity’s electoral system. Trader consensus prices these barriers as decisive unless late opposition consolidation or turnout shifts materialize before election day.

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.

If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,076
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Željka Cvijanović, the incumbent Serb member of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite Presidency and SNSD standard-bearer, holds an 87% market share ahead of the 4 October 2026 general election. Her position stems from SNSD’s entrenched dominance in Republika Srpska, where voters directly select the Serb seat, reinforced by the party’s recent narrow victories in the 2025 RS presidential contest and its subsequent rerun. Opposition figures such as Marinko Božović (SDS), Branko Blanuša, Nebojša Vukanović, Siniša Karan, and Draško Stanivuković trail far behind, reflecting limited unified challenge and the structural advantages of incumbency within the entity’s electoral system. Trader consensus prices these barriers as decisive unless late opposition consolidation or turnout shifts materialize before election day.

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.

If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,076
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Željka Cvijanović" at 87%, followed by "Siniša Karan" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" has generated $32.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" is "Željka Cvijanović" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Siniša Karan" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.