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Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Dec 31

Dec 31

Netanyahu - Israel PM 43%

None before 2027 31%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 7.5%

Macron - France President 2.4%

Polymarket

$188,111 Vol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM 43%

None before 2027 31%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 7.5%

Macron - France President 2.4%

Polymarket

$188,111 Vol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$12,375 Vol.

43%

None before 2027

$72,625 Vol.

31%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$6,962 Vol.

8%

Macron - France President

$6,678 Vol.

2%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$8,455 Vol.

2%

Lecornu - France PM

$5,799 Vol.

2%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$4,630 Vol.

2%

Putin - Russia President

$5,477 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$5,178 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$5,201 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$4,577 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$6,329 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$3,983 Vol.

1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$4,128 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$4,232 Vol.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$3,950 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$5,061 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$5,306 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$3,575 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$3,772 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$4,953 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$4,864 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Netanyahu leads the market at 42.5% implied probability due to persistent coalition strains, legal proceedings, and security challenges in Israel that could force early elections or resignation before 2027. Traders assign 31% to no change, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency across most listed offices. Díaz-Canel at 7.5% factors in Cuba’s economic pressures and succession questions, while Macron’s 2.4% reflects France’s fragmented parliament and repeated government instability. Lower-probability names such as Sánchez, Lula, and others remain limited by constitutional term rules, polling stability, or lack of imminent electoral or institutional triggers. Market pricing incorporates recent diplomatic and domestic events that could accelerate or delay leadership transitions within the resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$188,111
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Netanyahu leads the market at 42.5% implied probability due to persistent coalition strains, legal proceedings, and security challenges in Israel that could force early elections or resignation before 2027. Traders assign 31% to no change, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency across most listed offices. Díaz-Canel at 7.5% factors in Cuba’s economic pressures and succession questions, while Macron’s 2.4% reflects France’s fragmented parliament and repeated government instability. Lower-probability names such as Sánchez, Lula, and others remain limited by constitutional term rules, polling stability, or lack of imminent electoral or institutional triggers. Market pricing incorporates recent diplomatic and domestic events that could accelerate or delay leadership transitions within the resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$188,111
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Netanyahu - Israel PM" at 43%, followed by "None before 2027" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" has generated $188.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is "Netanyahu - Israel PM" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "None before 2027" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.