Recent Met Office ensemble runs and observational data position the overnight minimum for London on August 21 near 11–14°C under light northerly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited showers, aligning trader consensus tightly with 14°C as the leading outcome. Clearer intervals overnight would promote greater radiative cooling and potentially lower readings, yet the urban heat-island effect from Greater London’s built environment tends to retain warmth and support values near the upper end of that range. Historical August climatology shows typical lows of 13–14°C, providing context for why probabilities cluster here rather than at extremes, with updated model guidance expected to refine the final recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 21?
Lowest temperature in London on August 21?
14°C 81%
15°C 13%
13°C 7%
12°C 2%
$11,210 Vol.
$11,210 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
7%
14°C
86%
15°C
11%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 81%
15°C 13%
13°C 7%
12°C 2%
$11,210 Vol.
$11,210 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
8°C or below
$1,253 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$110 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$375 Vol.
1%
11°C
$268 Vol.
1%
12°C
$471 Vol.
2%
13°C
$1,450 Vol.
7%
14°C
$1,467 Vol.
86%
15°C
$965 Vol.
11%
16°C
$1,654 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,677 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$1,519 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office ensemble runs and observational data position the overnight minimum for London on August 21 near 11–14°C under light northerly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited showers, aligning trader consensus tightly with 14°C as the leading outcome. Clearer intervals overnight would promote greater radiative cooling and potentially lower readings, yet the urban heat-island effect from Greater London’s built environment tends to retain warmth and support values near the upper end of that range. Historical August climatology shows typical lows of 13–14°C, providing context for why probabilities cluster here rather than at extremes, with updated model guidance expected to refine the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$11,210End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office ensemble runs and observational data position the overnight minimum for London on August 21 near 11–14°C under light northerly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited showers, aligning trader consensus tightly with 14°C as the leading outcome. Clearer intervals overnight would promote greater radiative cooling and potentially lower readings, yet the urban heat-island effect from Greater London’s built environment tends to retain warmth and support values near the upper end of that range. Historical August climatology shows typical lows of 13–14°C, providing context for why probabilities cluster here rather than at extremes, with updated model guidance expected to refine the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,210End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office ensemble runs and observational data position the overnight minimum for London on August 21 near 11–14°C under light northerly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited showers, aligning trader consensus tightly with 14°C as the leading outcome. Clearer intervals overnight would promote greater radiative cooling and potentially lower readings, yet the urban heat-island effect from Greater London’s built environment tends to retain warmth and support values near the upper end of that range. Historical August climatology shows typical lows of 13–14°C, providing context for why probabilities cluster here rather than at extremes, with updated model guidance expected to refine the final recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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