OpenAI’s September 8, 2026 release of both an analytical write-up and a publicly available Lean formalization for a finite-time singularity in the Navier-Stokes equations has anchored 93.5% market-implied odds against retraction. The multi-agent effort, powered by an internal model exceeding GPT-6 Astra capabilities, produced a machine-checkable proof establishing Clay statements C and D while explicitly declining the Millennium Prize. Trader consensus reflects the verifiable artifact and the fact that current disputes center on research priority and credit rather than mathematical errors. Independent verification of the GitHub repository remains the key near-term catalyst; a confirmed flaw in the formalization or an official OpenAI acknowledgment of invalidity could still shift sentiment before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s September 8, 2026 release of both an analytical write-up and a publicly available Lean formalization for a finite-time singularity in the Navier-Stokes equations has anchored 93.5% market-implied odds against retraction. The multi-agent effort, powered by an internal model exceeding GPT-6 Astra capabilities, produced a machine-checkable proof establishing Clay statements C and D while explicitly declining the Millennium Prize. Trader consensus reflects the verifiable artifact and the fact that current disputes center on research priority and credit rather than mathematical errors. Independent verification of the GitHub repository remains the key near-term catalyst; a confirmed flaw in the formalization or an official OpenAI acknowledgment of invalidity could still shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$50End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s September 8, 2026 release of both an analytical write-up and a publicly available Lean formalization for a finite-time singularity in the Navier-Stokes equations has anchored 93.5% market-implied odds against retraction. The multi-agent effort, powered by an internal model exceeding GPT-6 Astra capabilities, produced a machine-checkable proof establishing Clay statements C and D while explicitly declining the Millennium Prize. Trader consensus reflects the verifiable artifact and the fact that current disputes center on research priority and credit rather than mathematical errors. Independent verification of the GitHub repository remains the key near-term catalyst; a confirmed flaw in the formalization or an official OpenAI acknowledgment of invalidity could still shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$50End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s September 8, 2026 release of both an analytical write-up and a publicly available Lean formalization for a finite-time singularity in the Navier-Stokes equations has anchored 93.5% market-implied odds against retraction. The multi-agent effort, powered by an internal model exceeding GPT-6 Astra capabilities, produced a machine-checkable proof establishing Clay statements C and D while explicitly declining the Millennium Prize. Trader consensus reflects the verifiable artifact and the fact that current disputes center on research priority and credit rather than mathematical errors. Independent verification of the GitHub repository remains the key near-term catalyst; a confirmed flaw in the formalization or an official OpenAI acknowledgment of invalidity could still shift sentiment before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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