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icon for Lecornu out as French PM by...?
Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

icon for Lecornu out as French PM by...?
Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

$341,383 Vol.

Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$341,383 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31, 2026

$3,344 Vol.

1%

September 30, 2026

$6,323 Vol.

3%

December 31, 2026

$10,451 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sébastien Lecornu remains France’s prime minister in a minority government formed after repeated collapses in 2025, relying on President Macron’s backing and narrow survival of no-confidence motions from both La France Insoumise and National Rally. His administration passed the 2026 budget in early 2026 by invoking Article 49.3 three times and defeating opposition challenges, but the fragmented National Assembly continues to limit legislative options and heighten removal risk. Recent activity includes routine foreign engagements and domestic crisis management into summer 2026, with no new snap-election trigger or major scandal reported. Traders monitor upcoming parliamentary sessions, potential budget amendments, and any shift in centrist or opposition support that could assemble the 289-vote threshold needed to topple the government before resolution dates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$341,383
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sébastien Lecornu remains France’s prime minister in a minority government formed after repeated collapses in 2025, relying on President Macron’s backing and narrow survival of no-confidence motions from both La France Insoumise and National Rally. His administration passed the 2026 budget in early 2026 by invoking Article 49.3 three times and defeating opposition challenges, but the fragmented National Assembly continues to limit legislative options and heighten removal risk. Recent activity includes routine foreign engagements and domestic crisis management into summer 2026, with no new snap-election trigger or major scandal reported. Traders monitor upcoming parliamentary sessions, potential budget amendments, and any shift in centrist or opposition support that could assemble the 289-vote threshold needed to topple the government before resolution dates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$341,383
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lecornu out as French PM by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 28%, followed by "September 30, 2026" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" has generated $341.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lecornu out as French PM by...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30, 2026" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.