Iran’s post-war political transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination has fueled internal factional tensions and coup-related rhetoric. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and others, of plotting a “soft coup” or power grab amid disputes over a US truce, Strait of Hormuz negotiations, and succession arrangements favoring Mojtaba Khamenei. These claims coincide with ongoing economic pressures, sanctions enforcement, and reported leadership rivalries between IRGC-aligned elements and more pragmatic figures. Recent July–August 2026 developments, including contradictory public statements and denial of resignation rumors, highlight regime fragmentation without evidence of an active military coup. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any escalation in internal security measures could influence perceptions of stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,115,813 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 Vol.
December 31
$74,587 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war political transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination has fueled internal factional tensions and coup-related rhetoric. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and others, of plotting a “soft coup” or power grab amid disputes over a US truce, Strait of Hormuz negotiations, and succession arrangements favoring Mojtaba Khamenei. These claims coincide with ongoing economic pressures, sanctions enforcement, and reported leadership rivalries between IRGC-aligned elements and more pragmatic figures. Recent July–August 2026 developments, including contradictory public statements and denial of resignation rumors, highlight regime fragmentation without evidence of an active military coup. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any escalation in internal security measures could influence perceptions of stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war political transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination has fueled internal factional tensions and coup-related rhetoric. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and others, of plotting a “soft coup” or power grab amid disputes over a US truce, Strait of Hormuz negotiations, and succession arrangements favoring Mojtaba Khamenei. These claims coincide with ongoing economic pressures, sanctions enforcement, and reported leadership rivalries between IRGC-aligned elements and more pragmatic figures. Recent July–August 2026 developments, including contradictory public statements and denial of resignation rumors, highlight regime fragmentation without evidence of an active military coup. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any escalation in internal security measures could influence perceptions of stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-war political transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination has fueled internal factional tensions and coup-related rhetoric. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and others, of plotting a “soft coup” or power grab amid disputes over a US truce, Strait of Hormuz negotiations, and succession arrangements favoring Mojtaba Khamenei. These claims coincide with ongoing economic pressures, sanctions enforcement, and reported leadership rivalries between IRGC-aligned elements and more pragmatic figures. Recent July–August 2026 developments, including contradictory public statements and denial of resignation rumors, highlight regime fragmentation without evidence of an active military coup. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any escalation in internal security measures could influence perceptions of stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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