Russia’s centralized authority under President Vladimir Putin, backed by loyal security services such as the FSB and FSO, continues to constrain organized challenges from military or elite factions. Intelligence reports from March–May 2026 noted tightened personal security measures and concerns over leaks or plots linked to figures like former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, alongside isolated military blogger criticism and arrests for dissent. No verifiable coup attempt or coordinated elite defection has materialized through mid-August 2026. Historical patterns of regime continuity, suppression of opposition, and sustained wartime economic controls reinforce trader consensus that barriers to such an event remain high, yielding the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$118,197 Vol.
$118,197 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$118,197 Vol.
$118,197 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s centralized authority under President Vladimir Putin, backed by loyal security services such as the FSB and FSO, continues to constrain organized challenges from military or elite factions. Intelligence reports from March–May 2026 noted tightened personal security measures and concerns over leaks or plots linked to figures like former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, alongside isolated military blogger criticism and arrests for dissent. No verifiable coup attempt or coordinated elite defection has materialized through mid-August 2026. Historical patterns of regime continuity, suppression of opposition, and sustained wartime economic controls reinforce trader consensus that barriers to such an event remain high, yielding the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$118,197End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s centralized authority under President Vladimir Putin, backed by loyal security services such as the FSB and FSO, continues to constrain organized challenges from military or elite factions. Intelligence reports from March–May 2026 noted tightened personal security measures and concerns over leaks or plots linked to figures like former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, alongside isolated military blogger criticism and arrests for dissent. No verifiable coup attempt or coordinated elite defection has materialized through mid-August 2026. Historical patterns of regime continuity, suppression of opposition, and sustained wartime economic controls reinforce trader consensus that barriers to such an event remain high, yielding the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,197End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s centralized authority under President Vladimir Putin, backed by loyal security services such as the FSB and FSO, continues to constrain organized challenges from military or elite factions. Intelligence reports from March–May 2026 noted tightened personal security measures and concerns over leaks or plots linked to figures like former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, alongside isolated military blogger criticism and arrests for dissent. No verifiable coup attempt or coordinated elite defection has materialized through mid-August 2026. Historical patterns of regime continuity, suppression of opposition, and sustained wartime economic controls reinforce trader consensus that barriers to such an event remain high, yielding the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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