Xi Jinping maintains firm control over China's political and military structures following major PLA leadership purges in late 2025 and early 2026, including the removal of senior figures such as General Zhang Youxia, which authorities attributed to corruption and discipline violations rather than any successful challenge. These actions, combined with the absence of verified reports or primary evidence of coordinated opposition within the CCP or military, underpin trader consensus around the low likelihood of a coup attempt in the remaining months of 2026. China's closed political system and Xi's extensive security apparatus further reduce opportunities for rapid internal shifts. Even with these factors, developments such as a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic instability sparking elite discontent, or an unanticipated foreign policy reversal could still introduce uncertainty before the 2027 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$153,752 Vol.
$153,752 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$153,752 Vol.
$153,752 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over China's political and military structures following major PLA leadership purges in late 2025 and early 2026, including the removal of senior figures such as General Zhang Youxia, which authorities attributed to corruption and discipline violations rather than any successful challenge. These actions, combined with the absence of verified reports or primary evidence of coordinated opposition within the CCP or military, underpin trader consensus around the low likelihood of a coup attempt in the remaining months of 2026. China's closed political system and Xi's extensive security apparatus further reduce opportunities for rapid internal shifts. Even with these factors, developments such as a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic instability sparking elite discontent, or an unanticipated foreign policy reversal could still introduce uncertainty before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$153,752End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over China's political and military structures following major PLA leadership purges in late 2025 and early 2026, including the removal of senior figures such as General Zhang Youxia, which authorities attributed to corruption and discipline violations rather than any successful challenge. These actions, combined with the absence of verified reports or primary evidence of coordinated opposition within the CCP or military, underpin trader consensus around the low likelihood of a coup attempt in the remaining months of 2026. China's closed political system and Xi's extensive security apparatus further reduce opportunities for rapid internal shifts. Even with these factors, developments such as a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic instability sparking elite discontent, or an unanticipated foreign policy reversal could still introduce uncertainty before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,752End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm control over China's political and military structures following major PLA leadership purges in late 2025 and early 2026, including the removal of senior figures such as General Zhang Youxia, which authorities attributed to corruption and discipline violations rather than any successful challenge. These actions, combined with the absence of verified reports or primary evidence of coordinated opposition within the CCP or military, underpin trader consensus around the low likelihood of a coup attempt in the remaining months of 2026. China's closed political system and Xi's extensive security apparatus further reduce opportunities for rapid internal shifts. Even with these factors, developments such as a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic instability sparking elite discontent, or an unanticipated foreign policy reversal could still introduce uncertainty before the 2027 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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