Following the 2026 Iran war and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iranian hardliners have publicly accused figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf of plotting internal power shifts against potential successors like Mojtaba Khamenei, framing these moves as coup attempts amid a fragile US truce. These statements, coupled with post-conflict military consolidation and opposition calls for regime change, have shaped trader views on whether verifiable coup-related events would surface by the June 30 resolution date. Broader factors include institutional rifts exposed by wartime decapitation strikes, limited evidence of organized internal rebellions, and scheduled political transitions that could either stabilize or destabilize leadership structures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,115,813 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 Vol.
December 31
$74,587 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the 2026 Iran war and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iranian hardliners have publicly accused figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf of plotting internal power shifts against potential successors like Mojtaba Khamenei, framing these moves as coup attempts amid a fragile US truce. These statements, coupled with post-conflict military consolidation and opposition calls for regime change, have shaped trader views on whether verifiable coup-related events would surface by the June 30 resolution date. Broader factors include institutional rifts exposed by wartime decapitation strikes, limited evidence of organized internal rebellions, and scheduled political transitions that could either stabilize or destabilize leadership structures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the 2026 Iran war and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iranian hardliners have publicly accused figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf of plotting internal power shifts against potential successors like Mojtaba Khamenei, framing these moves as coup attempts amid a fragile US truce. These statements, coupled with post-conflict military consolidation and opposition calls for regime change, have shaped trader views on whether verifiable coup-related events would surface by the June 30 resolution date. Broader factors include institutional rifts exposed by wartime decapitation strikes, limited evidence of organized internal rebellions, and scheduled political transitions that could either stabilize or destabilize leadership structures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the 2026 Iran war and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iranian hardliners have publicly accused figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf of plotting internal power shifts against potential successors like Mojtaba Khamenei, framing these moves as coup attempts amid a fragile US truce. These statements, coupled with post-conflict military consolidation and opposition calls for regime change, have shaped trader views on whether verifiable coup-related events would surface by the June 30 resolution date. Broader factors include institutional rifts exposed by wartime decapitation strikes, limited evidence of organized internal rebellions, and scheduled political transitions that could either stabilize or destabilize leadership structures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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