Ongoing diplomatic efforts since early 2026, including trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, have produced no signed agreement due to persistent gaps on territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees. Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from key regions remain unmet, while Ukraine insists on firm postwar protections short of NATO membership. Kremlin statements in late July 2026 noted the absence of concrete new proposals, and battlefield developments have not altered core positions with the August 31 deadline approaching. The 99.4% trader consensus on “No” reflects these entrenched differences and limited time for ratification. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or external pressure altering incentives before month-end could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$248,043 Vol.
$248,043 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$248,043 Vol.
$248,043 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing diplomatic efforts since early 2026, including trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, have produced no signed agreement due to persistent gaps on territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees. Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from key regions remain unmet, while Ukraine insists on firm postwar protections short of NATO membership. Kremlin statements in late July 2026 noted the absence of concrete new proposals, and battlefield developments have not altered core positions with the August 31 deadline approaching. The 99.4% trader consensus on “No” reflects these entrenched differences and limited time for ratification. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or external pressure altering incentives before month-end could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$248,043End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing diplomatic efforts since early 2026, including trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, have produced no signed agreement due to persistent gaps on territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees. Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from key regions remain unmet, while Ukraine insists on firm postwar protections short of NATO membership. Kremlin statements in late July 2026 noted the absence of concrete new proposals, and battlefield developments have not altered core positions with the August 31 deadline approaching. The 99.4% trader consensus on “No” reflects these entrenched differences and limited time for ratification. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or external pressure altering incentives before month-end could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$248,043End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts since early 2026, including trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, have produced no signed agreement due to persistent gaps on territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees. Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from key regions remain unmet, while Ukraine insists on firm postwar protections short of NATO membership. Kremlin statements in late July 2026 noted the absence of concrete new proposals, and battlefield developments have not altered core positions with the August 31 deadline approaching. The 99.4% trader consensus on “No” reflects these entrenched differences and limited time for ratification. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or external pressure altering incentives before month-end could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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