Traders assign the highest implied probability (54.5%) to a 33°C peak in Panama City on August 21, reflecting current forecast guidance from regional models showing daytime maxima near that level amid typical rainy-season conditions. Average August highs hover around 29–30°C, with sea breezes and frequent afternoon convection limiting extremes, though brief clear periods or reduced moisture can push readings to 32–34°C. Historical data indicate values above 34°C remain uncommon, supporting the combined 20.8% odds on 34°C or higher while keeping lower outcomes like 32°C at 24.5%. Updated model runs and real-time observations over the past 24–48 hours have reinforced this narrow range, with resolution hinging on official daily maximum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on August 21?
Highest temperature in Panama City on August 21?
33°C 55%
32°C 25%
34°C 19%
31°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
4%
32°C
25%
33°C
55%
34°C
19%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 55%
32°C 25%
34°C 19%
31°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
26°C or below
$104 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$97 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$97 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$139 Vol.
1%
30°C
$671 Vol.
1%
31°C
$312 Vol.
4%
32°C
$547 Vol.
25%
33°C
$893 Vol.
55%
34°C
$582 Vol.
19%
35°C
$175 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$120 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (54.5%) to a 33°C peak in Panama City on August 21, reflecting current forecast guidance from regional models showing daytime maxima near that level amid typical rainy-season conditions. Average August highs hover around 29–30°C, with sea breezes and frequent afternoon convection limiting extremes, though brief clear periods or reduced moisture can push readings to 32–34°C. Historical data indicate values above 34°C remain uncommon, supporting the combined 20.8% odds on 34°C or higher while keeping lower outcomes like 32°C at 24.5%. Updated model runs and real-time observations over the past 24–48 hours have reinforced this narrow range, with resolution hinging on official daily maximum readings.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$3,737End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (54.5%) to a 33°C peak in Panama City on August 21, reflecting current forecast guidance from regional models showing daytime maxima near that level amid typical rainy-season conditions. Average August highs hover around 29–30°C, with sea breezes and frequent afternoon convection limiting extremes, though brief clear periods or reduced moisture can push readings to 32–34°C. Historical data indicate values above 34°C remain uncommon, supporting the combined 20.8% odds on 34°C or higher while keeping lower outcomes like 32°C at 24.5%. Updated model runs and real-time observations over the past 24–48 hours have reinforced this narrow range, with resolution hinging on official daily maximum readings.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,737End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (54.5%) to a 33°C peak in Panama City on August 21, reflecting current forecast guidance from regional models showing daytime maxima near that level amid typical rainy-season conditions. Average August highs hover around 29–30°C, with sea breezes and frequent afternoon convection limiting extremes, though brief clear periods or reduced moisture can push readings to 32–34°C. Historical data indicate values above 34°C remain uncommon, supporting the combined 20.8% odds on 34°C or higher while keeping lower outcomes like 32°C at 24.5%. Updated model runs and real-time observations over the past 24–48 hours have reinforced this narrow range, with resolution hinging on official daily maximum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions