**The observed high temperature of 96°F at Houston's official reporting station (Hobby Airport) on August 20, 2026, drove the 100% market-implied probability for the 96-97°F bin.** National Weather Service and AccuWeather point forecasts had projected near 97°F under persistent high pressure, sunny skies, and light southwest flow—conditions typical for late-summer Houston that often produce upper-90s readings above the 94°F climatological normal. Post-event station data aligned precisely with this range, eliminating uncertainty across other bins. Minor model spreads or localized variations could have shifted the reading into adjacent categories, but the verified measurement at the resolution station locked in the outcome with high confidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 20?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 20?
96-97°F 100.0%
91°F or below <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$30,667 Vol.
$30,667 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
100%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 100.0%
91°F or below <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$30,667 Vol.
$30,667 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
91°F or below
$1,061 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$3,125 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$3,920 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$8,277 Vol.
100%
98-99°F
$7,117 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$3,929 Vol.
<1%
102-103°F
$2,344 Vol.
<1%
104-105°F
$472 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$392 Vol.
<1%
108-109°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The observed high temperature of 96°F at Houston's official reporting station (Hobby Airport) on August 20, 2026, drove the 100% market-implied probability for the 96-97°F bin.** National Weather Service and AccuWeather point forecasts had projected near 97°F under persistent high pressure, sunny skies, and light southwest flow—conditions typical for late-summer Houston that often produce upper-90s readings above the 94°F climatological normal. Post-event station data aligned precisely with this range, eliminating uncertainty across other bins. Minor model spreads or localized variations could have shifted the reading into adjacent categories, but the verified measurement at the resolution station locked in the outcome with high confidence.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$30,667End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The observed high temperature of 96°F at Houston's official reporting station (Hobby Airport) on August 20, 2026, drove the 100% market-implied probability for the 96-97°F bin.** National Weather Service and AccuWeather point forecasts had projected near 97°F under persistent high pressure, sunny skies, and light southwest flow—conditions typical for late-summer Houston that often produce upper-90s readings above the 94°F climatological normal. Post-event station data aligned precisely with this range, eliminating uncertainty across other bins. Minor model spreads or localized variations could have shifted the reading into adjacent categories, but the verified measurement at the resolution station locked in the outcome with high confidence.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,667End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The observed high temperature of 96°F at Houston's official reporting station (Hobby Airport) on August 20, 2026, drove the 100% market-implied probability for the 96-97°F bin.** National Weather Service and AccuWeather point forecasts had projected near 97°F under persistent high pressure, sunny skies, and light southwest flow—conditions typical for late-summer Houston that often produce upper-90s readings above the 94°F climatological normal. Post-event station data aligned precisely with this range, eliminating uncertainty across other bins. Minor model spreads or localized variations could have shifted the reading into adjacent categories, but the verified measurement at the resolution station locked in the outcome with high confidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions