Recent KMA short-range guidance shows a warm, humid air mass over Busan on August 17 with a forecast maximum of 32 °C, yet 60 % probability of afternoon showers and increasing cloud cover that historically caps realized highs by 2–4 °C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble runs from regional models exhibit modest spread around 28–31 °C depending on exact timing and intensity of convection, while climatological August averages hover near 29–30 °C. Traders therefore cluster near 27–29 °C as the most probable outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale temperature advection. Updated KMA and global model runs expected overnight will likely refine this narrow range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Busan on August 17?
Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?
28°C 32%
29°C 26%
27°C 25%
26°C 12.7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
13%
27°C
25%
28°C
32%
29°C
26%
30°C
7%
31°C or higher
2%
28°C 32%
29°C 26%
27°C 25%
26°C 12.7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
21°C or below
$401 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$493 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$594 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$123 Vol.
3%
26°C
$564 Vol.
13%
27°C
$1,220 Vol.
25%
28°C
$457 Vol.
32%
29°C
$1,667 Vol.
26%
30°C
$357 Vol.
7%
31°C or higher
$244 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA short-range guidance shows a warm, humid air mass over Busan on August 17 with a forecast maximum of 32 °C, yet 60 % probability of afternoon showers and increasing cloud cover that historically caps realized highs by 2–4 °C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble runs from regional models exhibit modest spread around 28–31 °C depending on exact timing and intensity of convection, while climatological August averages hover near 29–30 °C. Traders therefore cluster near 27–29 °C as the most probable outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale temperature advection. Updated KMA and global model runs expected overnight will likely refine this narrow range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$6,338End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA short-range guidance shows a warm, humid air mass over Busan on August 17 with a forecast maximum of 32 °C, yet 60 % probability of afternoon showers and increasing cloud cover that historically caps realized highs by 2–4 °C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble runs from regional models exhibit modest spread around 28–31 °C depending on exact timing and intensity of convection, while climatological August averages hover near 29–30 °C. Traders therefore cluster near 27–29 °C as the most probable outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale temperature advection. Updated KMA and global model runs expected overnight will likely refine this narrow range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,338End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent KMA short-range guidance shows a warm, humid air mass over Busan on August 17 with a forecast maximum of 32 °C, yet 60 % probability of afternoon showers and increasing cloud cover that historically caps realized highs by 2–4 °C through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Ensemble runs from regional models exhibit modest spread around 28–31 °C depending on exact timing and intensity of convection, while climatological August averages hover near 29–30 °C. Traders therefore cluster near 27–29 °C as the most probable outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large-scale temperature advection. Updated KMA and global model runs expected overnight will likely refine this narrow range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions