US-Iran military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified in 2026, with reported American strikes on Iranian positions including Hengam Island and nearby sites such as Qeshm and Kharg as part of efforts to disrupt maritime control and oil infrastructure. Iran maintains firm sovereignty assertions over Hengam and surrounding islands, expanding operational claims across the strait through IRGC measures, new transit regulations, and diplomatic counterproposals to Oman for shared oversight. No verified transfers of territorial control have occurred despite amphibious speculation and island strikes. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term change, driven by Iran's entrenched military presence, historical precedent on disputed Gulf islands, and absence of confirmed occupation or regime-altering developments within resolution windows. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges and potential further escalation remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$120,756 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$120,756 Vol.
August 31
$93,208 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified in 2026, with reported American strikes on Iranian positions including Hengam Island and nearby sites such as Qeshm and Kharg as part of efforts to disrupt maritime control and oil infrastructure. Iran maintains firm sovereignty assertions over Hengam and surrounding islands, expanding operational claims across the strait through IRGC measures, new transit regulations, and diplomatic counterproposals to Oman for shared oversight. No verified transfers of territorial control have occurred despite amphibious speculation and island strikes. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term change, driven by Iran's entrenched military presence, historical precedent on disputed Gulf islands, and absence of confirmed occupation or regime-altering developments within resolution windows. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges and potential further escalation remain key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$120,756End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified in 2026, with reported American strikes on Iranian positions including Hengam Island and nearby sites such as Qeshm and Kharg as part of efforts to disrupt maritime control and oil infrastructure. Iran maintains firm sovereignty assertions over Hengam and surrounding islands, expanding operational claims across the strait through IRGC measures, new transit regulations, and diplomatic counterproposals to Oman for shared oversight. No verified transfers of territorial control have occurred despite amphibious speculation and island strikes. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term change, driven by Iran's entrenched military presence, historical precedent on disputed Gulf islands, and absence of confirmed occupation or regime-altering developments within resolution windows. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges and potential further escalation remain key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,756End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified in 2026, with reported American strikes on Iranian positions including Hengam Island and nearby sites such as Qeshm and Kharg as part of efforts to disrupt maritime control and oil infrastructure. Iran maintains firm sovereignty assertions over Hengam and surrounding islands, expanding operational claims across the strait through IRGC measures, new transit regulations, and diplomatic counterproposals to Oman for shared oversight. No verified transfers of territorial control have occurred despite amphibious speculation and island strikes. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term change, driven by Iran's entrenched military presence, historical precedent on disputed Gulf islands, and absence of confirmed occupation or regime-altering developments within resolution windows. Ongoing diplomatic exchanges and potential further escalation remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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