Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green secured his party's nomination with nearly 89 percent of the primary vote in early August 2026, facing only minor challengers, while Republican Gary Cordery emerged from a limited field on the other side. Hawaii's consistent Democratic voting patterns in statewide races, combined with Green's established incumbency and the absence of major recent controversies or polling shifts, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The November 3 general election remains several months away, leaving room for late developments such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high Republican mobilization tied to national conditions to narrow the margin, though such shifts would deviate from historical state-level results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHawaii Governor Election Winner
Hawaii Governor Election Winner
$14,728 Vol.
$14,728 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
96%
Republican
2%
$14,728 Vol.
$14,728 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$6,602 Vol.
96%
Republican
$8,127 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green secured his party's nomination with nearly 89 percent of the primary vote in early August 2026, facing only minor challengers, while Republican Gary Cordery emerged from a limited field on the other side. Hawaii's consistent Democratic voting patterns in statewide races, combined with Green's established incumbency and the absence of major recent controversies or polling shifts, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The November 3 general election remains several months away, leaving room for late developments such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high Republican mobilization tied to national conditions to narrow the margin, though such shifts would deviate from historical state-level results.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$14,728End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green secured his party's nomination with nearly 89 percent of the primary vote in early August 2026, facing only minor challengers, while Republican Gary Cordery emerged from a limited field on the other side. Hawaii's consistent Democratic voting patterns in statewide races, combined with Green's established incumbency and the absence of major recent controversies or polling shifts, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The November 3 general election remains several months away, leaving room for late developments such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high Republican mobilization tied to national conditions to narrow the margin, though such shifts would deviate from historical state-level results.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$14,728End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green secured his party's nomination with nearly 89 percent of the primary vote in early August 2026, facing only minor challengers, while Republican Gary Cordery emerged from a limited field on the other side. Hawaii's consistent Democratic voting patterns in statewide races, combined with Green's established incumbency and the absence of major recent controversies or polling shifts, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The November 3 general election remains several months away, leaving room for late developments such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high Republican mobilization tied to national conditions to narrow the margin, though such shifts would deviate from historical state-level results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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