Byron Donalds holds a commanding position heading into the August 18 Florida Republican primary for governor, backed by President Trump's early endorsement and consistent polling averages near 47-50% among likely GOP voters. Fragmented opposition from Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and others has kept the field divided, with recent surveys showing Collins in the mid-teens and the rest in single digits. Late developments, including Fishback's August 6 claims of a DOJ probe into Donalds and criticism over debate participation, have not materially shifted the race. Traders price wide margins for Donalds as the most probable outcome, reflecting his fundraising edge and structural advantages in a low-turnout primary, though exact vote shares remain sensitive to final mobilization and any last-minute events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDonalds 40%+ 47%
Donalds 35–40% 30%
Donalds 30–35% 10%
Donalds 5–10% <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
Donalds 40%+
47%
Donalds 35–40%
30%
Donalds 30–35%
10%
Donalds 25–30%
1%
Donalds 20–25%
1%
Donalds 15–20%
1%
Donalds 10–15%
1%
Donalds 5–10%
1%
Donalds <5%
1%
Collins wins
1%
Fishback wins
1%
Donalds 40%+ 47%
Donalds 35–40% 30%
Donalds 30–35% 10%
Donalds 5–10% <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
Donalds 40%+
$4,066 Vol.
47%
Donalds 35–40%
$3,293 Vol.
30%
Donalds 30–35%
$221 Vol.
10%
Donalds 25–30%
$175 Vol.
1%
Donalds 20–25%
$155 Vol.
1%
Donalds 15–20%
$155 Vol.
1%
Donalds 10–15%
$155 Vol.
1%
Donalds 5–10%
$155 Vol.
1%
Donalds <5%
$155 Vol.
1%
Collins wins
$160 Vol.
1%
Fishback wins
$160 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds holds a commanding position heading into the August 18 Florida Republican primary for governor, backed by President Trump's early endorsement and consistent polling averages near 47-50% among likely GOP voters. Fragmented opposition from Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and others has kept the field divided, with recent surveys showing Collins in the mid-teens and the rest in single digits. Late developments, including Fishback's August 6 claims of a DOJ probe into Donalds and criticism over debate participation, have not materially shifted the race. Traders price wide margins for Donalds as the most probable outcome, reflecting his fundraising edge and structural advantages in a low-turnout primary, though exact vote shares remain sensitive to final mobilization and any last-minute events.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$8,852End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds holds a commanding position heading into the August 18 Florida Republican primary for governor, backed by President Trump's early endorsement and consistent polling averages near 47-50% among likely GOP voters. Fragmented opposition from Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and others has kept the field divided, with recent surveys showing Collins in the mid-teens and the rest in single digits. Late developments, including Fishback's August 6 claims of a DOJ probe into Donalds and criticism over debate participation, have not materially shifted the race. Traders price wide margins for Donalds as the most probable outcome, reflecting his fundraising edge and structural advantages in a low-turnout primary, though exact vote shares remain sensitive to final mobilization and any last-minute events.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$8,852End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Byron Donalds holds a commanding position heading into the August 18 Florida Republican primary for governor, backed by President Trump's early endorsement and consistent polling averages near 47-50% among likely GOP voters. Fragmented opposition from Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and others has kept the field divided, with recent surveys showing Collins in the mid-teens and the rest in single digits. Late developments, including Fishback's August 6 claims of a DOJ probe into Donalds and criticism over debate participation, have not materially shifted the race. Traders price wide margins for Donalds as the most probable outcome, reflecting his fundraising edge and structural advantages in a low-turnout primary, though exact vote shares remain sensitive to final mobilization and any last-minute events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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