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icon for FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

Lois Frankel 96.0%

Victoria Doyle 3.0%

Jared Moskowitz <1%

Oliver Adams Larkin <1%

Polymarket

$54,386 Vol.

Lois Frankel 96.0%

Victoria Doyle 3.0%

Jared Moskowitz <1%

Oliver Adams Larkin <1%

Polymarket

$54,386 Vol.

icon for Lois Frankel

Lois Frankel

$9,389 Vol.

96%

icon for Victoria Doyle

Victoria Doyle

$4,042 Vol.

3%

icon for Jared Moskowitz

Jared Moskowitz

$16,931 Vol.

<1%

icon for Oliver Adams Larkin

Oliver Adams Larkin

$24,024 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lois Frankel's commanding position in the FL-23 Democratic primary stems from her long incumbency in Palm Beach County areas now consolidated into a heavily Democratic district after redistricting. Traders assign her a 96% implied probability based on her established name recognition, fundraising edge, and institutional support ahead of the August 18 primary. Victoria Doyle, the leading challenger, has focused on calls for generational change and critiques of Frankel's legislative record, yet faces structural barriers typical for primary opponents to sitting members in safe seats. Limited polling or late developments have shifted sentiment in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually high challenger turnout or last-minute revelations affecting voter preferences before early voting concludes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$54,386
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lois Frankel's commanding position in the FL-23 Democratic primary stems from her long incumbency in Palm Beach County areas now consolidated into a heavily Democratic district after redistricting. Traders assign her a 96% implied probability based on her established name recognition, fundraising edge, and institutional support ahead of the August 18 primary. Victoria Doyle, the leading challenger, has focused on calls for generational change and critiques of Frankel's legislative record, yet faces structural barriers typical for primary opponents to sitting members in safe seats. Limited polling or late developments have shifted sentiment in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually high challenger turnout or last-minute revelations affecting voter preferences before early voting concludes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$54,386
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lois Frankel" at 96%, followed by "Victoria Doyle" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $54.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Lois Frankel" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Victoria Doyle" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.