Joe Strada leads the Republican primary for Florida’s 11th Congressional District, an open seat after incumbent Daniel Webster’s retirement, with the August 18 vote four days away. Traders assign him a 67% implied probability, driven by his self-funding of over $5 million, major ad buys, and endorsements from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and multiple state legislators. Carey Baker, a former state senator with stronger local ties, trails at 25.5% amid lower fundraising and a more modest campaign profile. Tim Wilkins holds 9%, while Ivette Palomo, Nizam Razack, and others register minimal support. Late-cycle attack ads between the top contenders and Strada’s decision to skip certain forums have not shifted the market consensus away from the better-resourced candidate in this low-turnout contest.