Doug Ford secured a third consecutive majority government for Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives in the February 2025 snap election and reaffirmed his intention to seek a fourth term at the party’s January 2026 convention. These outcomes have reinforced his position as both premier and party leader, with no leadership review scheduled and no signs of organized caucus revolt or resignation pressure through mid-2026. While personal approval ratings have softened in some polls, the party maintains a comfortable lead in voter support. Isolated internal tensions, such as the June 2026 removal of a caucus chair who challenged Ford on specific policy matters, have not escalated into broader challenges to his leadership. Traders therefore assign an 88.5% probability that he remains in place through year-end.