Recent polling shows Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shaping up as a tight five-party contest, with Die Linke edging ahead at roughly 20–22 percent, the CDU at 18–20 percent, the AfD close behind, and the Greens also competitive. This fragmentation keeps the CDU’s projected seat total—most likely in the 25–34 range according to trader consensus—highly sensitive to small shifts in vote share. The CDU’s position has stabilized following the late withdrawal of former mayor Kai Wegner and the elevation of Stefan Evers as lead candidate, yet it has not regained the clear lead it held earlier in the cycle. Voter priorities such as housing costs, public security, and transport policy remain salient, while regional differences between eastern and western districts continue to influence party performances. With roughly one month remaining, final campaign momentum, turnout differentials, and any late shifts in undecided voters could narrow or widen the CDU’s seat band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?
Berlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?
35-39 29%
40-44 22%
45+ 21%
<25 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<25
13%
25-29
35%
30-34
38%
35-39
29%
40-44
22%
45+
21%
35-39 29%
40-44 22%
45+ 21%
<25 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<25
$49 Vol.
13%
25-29
$118 Vol.
35%
30-34
$46 Vol.
38%
35-39
$20 Vol.
29%
40-44
$20 Vol.
22%
45+
$37 Vol.
21%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling shows Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shaping up as a tight five-party contest, with Die Linke edging ahead at roughly 20–22 percent, the CDU at 18–20 percent, the AfD close behind, and the Greens also competitive. This fragmentation keeps the CDU’s projected seat total—most likely in the 25–34 range according to trader consensus—highly sensitive to small shifts in vote share. The CDU’s position has stabilized following the late withdrawal of former mayor Kai Wegner and the elevation of Stefan Evers as lead candidate, yet it has not regained the clear lead it held earlier in the cycle. Voter priorities such as housing costs, public security, and transport policy remain salient, while regional differences between eastern and western districts continue to influence party performances. With roughly one month remaining, final campaign momentum, turnout differentials, and any late shifts in undecided voters could narrow or widen the CDU’s seat band.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling shows Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shaping up as a tight five-party contest, with Die Linke edging ahead at roughly 20–22 percent, the CDU at 18–20 percent, the AfD close behind, and the Greens also competitive. This fragmentation keeps the CDU’s projected seat total—most likely in the 25–34 range according to trader consensus—highly sensitive to small shifts in vote share. The CDU’s position has stabilized following the late withdrawal of former mayor Kai Wegner and the elevation of Stefan Evers as lead candidate, yet it has not regained the clear lead it held earlier in the cycle. Voter priorities such as housing costs, public security, and transport policy remain salient, while regional differences between eastern and western districts continue to influence party performances. With roughly one month remaining, final campaign momentum, turnout differentials, and any late shifts in undecided voters could narrow or widen the CDU’s seat band.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shaping up as a tight five-party contest, with Die Linke edging ahead at roughly 20–22 percent, the CDU at 18–20 percent, the AfD close behind, and the Greens also competitive. This fragmentation keeps the CDU’s projected seat total—most likely in the 25–34 range according to trader consensus—highly sensitive to small shifts in vote share. The CDU’s position has stabilized following the late withdrawal of former mayor Kai Wegner and the elevation of Stefan Evers as lead candidate, yet it has not regained the clear lead it held earlier in the cycle. Voter priorities such as housing costs, public security, and transport policy remain salient, while regional differences between eastern and western districts continue to influence party performances. With roughly one month remaining, final campaign momentum, turnout differentials, and any late shifts in undecided voters could narrow or widen the CDU’s seat band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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