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icon for Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?
Politics·Berlin

Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?

icon for Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?
Politics·Berlin

Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?

30-34 32%

40+ 21%

20-24 20%

35-39 17%

Polymarket
NEW

30-34 32%

40+ 21%

20-24 20%

35-39 17%

Polymarket
NEW

<20

$119 Vol.

13%

20-24

$81 Vol.

20%

25-29

$0 Vol.

9%

30-34

$0 Vol.

32%

35-39

$38 Vol.

17%

40+

$206 Vol.

21%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Linke party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling trends for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke holding a narrow lead or close second at 18-22 percent, ahead of the CDU and AfD, reflecting sustained gains since mid-2025 amid shifts in voter preferences on housing, social policy, and urban issues. This positioning implies roughly 25-35 seats under standard proportional allocation with the 5 percent threshold, aligning trader consensus around the 30-34 outcome as the most probable range. Volatility across recent surveys, including fluctuations for the Greens and SPD, plus uncertainties over turnout and coalition dynamics, supports the spread into higher or lower brackets. Key upcoming catalysts include final campaign positioning and any late shifts in voter blocs that could consolidate or fragment support.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Linke party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.

This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.

If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$443
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Linke party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Linke party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling trends for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke holding a narrow lead or close second at 18-22 percent, ahead of the CDU and AfD, reflecting sustained gains since mid-2025 amid shifts in voter preferences on housing, social policy, and urban issues. This positioning implies roughly 25-35 seats under standard proportional allocation with the 5 percent threshold, aligning trader consensus around the 30-34 outcome as the most probable range. Volatility across recent surveys, including fluctuations for the Greens and SPD, plus uncertainties over turnout and coalition dynamics, supports the spread into higher or lower brackets. Key upcoming catalysts include final campaign positioning and any late shifts in voter blocs that could consolidate or fragment support.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Linke party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.

This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.

If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$443
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Linke party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Related

icon for Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

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icon for Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

32%
icon for Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

42%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30-34" at 32%, followed by "40+" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?" is "30-34" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40+" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Berlin State Elections: Linke # of seats?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.