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Politics·Mexico

Baja California Governor Election Winner

icon for Baja California Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Baja California Governor Election Winner

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 44%

Julieta Ramírez Padilla 28%

Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe 5.8%

Víctor Galicia 5.1%

Polymarket

$11,501 Vol.

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 44%

Julieta Ramírez Padilla 28%

Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe 5.8%

Víctor Galicia 5.1%

Polymarket

$11,501 Vol.

icon for Ismael Burgueño Ruiz

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz

$1,661 Vol.

44%

icon for Julieta Ramírez Padilla

Julieta Ramírez Padilla

$5,118 Vol.

28%

icon for Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe

Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe

$244 Vol.

6%

icon for Víctor Galicia

Víctor Galicia

$250 Vol.

5%

icon for Evangelina Moreno Guerra

Evangelina Moreno Guerra

$244 Vol.

4%

icon for Armando Ayala Robles

Armando Ayala Robles

$244 Vol.

2%

icon for Juan Carlos Hank

Juan Carlos Hank

$244 Vol.

7%

icon for Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros

Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros

$247 Vol.

2%

icon for Gustavo de Hoyos Walther

Gustavo de Hoyos Walther

$227 Vol.

2%

icon for Karla Ruiz Macfarland

Karla Ruiz Macfarland

$276 Vol.

2%

icon for Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas

Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas

$244 Vol.

1%

icon for Gina Cruz Blackledge

Gina Cruz Blackledge

$244 Vol.

1%

icon for Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega

Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega

$284 Vol.

6%

icon for Héctor Osuna Jaime

Héctor Osuna Jaime

$248 Vol.

7%

icon for Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso

Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso

$239 Vol.

1%

icon for Fernando Castro Trenti

Fernando Castro Trenti

$244 Vol.

1%

icon for Montserrat Caballero Ramírez

Montserrat Caballero Ramírez

$244 Vol.

1%

icon for Daylín García Ruvalcaba

Daylín García Ruvalcaba

$244 Vol.

1%

icon for Ana Daniela García Salgado

Ana Daniela García Salgado

$247 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jorge Ramos Hernández

Jorge Ramos Hernández

$227 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Macalpin

Gustavo Macalpin

$276 Vol.

<1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Morena’s internal nomination process for the June 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with Tijuana Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz holding the highest implied probability at 43.5% after early party surveys gave him the edge over Senator Julieta Ramírez Padilla at 27.5%. Nine aspirants registered in June 2026 for a selection relying on internal polls rather than open primaries, producing fluctuating leads and preventing any candidate from consolidating support. Baja California’s Morena dominance since 2019 ties the general-election outcome closely to the nomination result, while municipal records, regional bases, and party alignments continue to shape positioning without a decisive frontrunner. Developments such as new surveys, endorsements from state or federal Morena figures, or shifts in the candidate field could widen separation ahead of formal selection.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$11,501
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Morena’s internal nomination process for the June 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with Tijuana Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz holding the highest implied probability at 43.5% after early party surveys gave him the edge over Senator Julieta Ramírez Padilla at 27.5%. Nine aspirants registered in June 2026 for a selection relying on internal polls rather than open primaries, producing fluctuating leads and preventing any candidate from consolidating support. Baja California’s Morena dominance since 2019 ties the general-election outcome closely to the nomination result, while municipal records, regional bases, and party alignments continue to shape positioning without a decisive frontrunner. Developments such as new surveys, endorsements from state or federal Morena figures, or shifts in the candidate field could widen separation ahead of formal selection.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$11,501
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Baja California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ismael Burgueño Ruiz" at 44%, followed by "Julieta Ramírez Padilla" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Baja California Governor Election Winner" has generated $11.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Baja California Governor Election Winner," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Baja California Governor Election Winner" is "Ismael Burgueño Ruiz" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Julieta Ramírez Padilla" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Baja California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.