**Recent Houthi threats and a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia have driven a sharp, sustained reduction in vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, pushing daily transits well below historical averages and anchoring trader sentiment toward the lower outcome buckets.** Following the blockade announcement, weekly transits fell 24% to the 266–269 range (roughly 38 daily), with preliminary data showing stabilization near early-2026 levels around 31 ships per day. Ship-tracking data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence confirm that many tankers and bulk carriers have diverted or held position, citing elevated risk of missile and drone attacks. Oil flows remain constrained near 4.2 million barrels per day—roughly half the pre-2024 peaks—reflecting the same risk premium that elevates war-risk insurance and prompts longer Cape of Good Hope routings. With the market resolution window now only two weeks away and no confirmed de-escalation or ceasefire in place, the 43% probability on <25 daily transits and 26.5% on 25–29 captures the current low-volume equilibrium. Higher buckets (35+) receive minimal implied odds because any material recovery would require rapid security improvements unlikely to materialize before month-end. Geopolitical volatility around Saudi ports and the broader Red Sea corridor remains the dominant driver, keeping near-term traffic expectations firmly suppressed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 42.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 8%
$13,331 Vol.
$13,331 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
43%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35-39
8%
40+
4%
<25 42.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 8%
$13,331 Vol.
$13,331 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,892 Vol.
43%
25-29
$3,318 Vol.
27%
30-34
$3,473 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,058 Vol.
8%
40+
$2,589 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Recent Houthi threats and a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia have driven a sharp, sustained reduction in vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, pushing daily transits well below historical averages and anchoring trader sentiment toward the lower outcome buckets.**
Following the blockade announcement, weekly transits fell 24% to the 266–269 range (roughly 38 daily), with preliminary data showing stabilization near early-2026 levels around 31 ships per day. Ship-tracking data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence confirm that many tankers and bulk carriers have diverted or held position, citing elevated risk of missile and drone attacks. Oil flows remain constrained near 4.2 million barrels per day—roughly half the pre-2024 peaks—reflecting the same risk premium that elevates war-risk insurance and prompts longer Cape of Good Hope routings.
With the market resolution window now only two weeks away and no confirmed de-escalation or ceasefire in place, the 43% probability on <25 daily transits and 26.5% on 25–29 captures the current low-volume equilibrium. Higher buckets (35+) receive minimal implied odds because any material recovery would require rapid security improvements unlikely to materialize before month-end. Geopolitical volatility around Saudi ports and the broader Red Sea corridor remains the dominant driver, keeping near-term traffic expectations firmly suppressed.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$13,331End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Recent Houthi threats and a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia have driven a sharp, sustained reduction in vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, pushing daily transits well below historical averages and anchoring trader sentiment toward the lower outcome buckets.**
Following the blockade announcement, weekly transits fell 24% to the 266–269 range (roughly 38 daily), with preliminary data showing stabilization near early-2026 levels around 31 ships per day. Ship-tracking data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence confirm that many tankers and bulk carriers have diverted or held position, citing elevated risk of missile and drone attacks. Oil flows remain constrained near 4.2 million barrels per day—roughly half the pre-2024 peaks—reflecting the same risk premium that elevates war-risk insurance and prompts longer Cape of Good Hope routings.
With the market resolution window now only two weeks away and no confirmed de-escalation or ceasefire in place, the 43% probability on <25 daily transits and 26.5% on 25–29 captures the current low-volume equilibrium. Higher buckets (35+) receive minimal implied odds because any material recovery would require rapid security improvements unlikely to materialize before month-end. Geopolitical volatility around Saudi ports and the broader Red Sea corridor remains the dominant driver, keeping near-term traffic expectations firmly suppressed.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$13,331End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Houthi threats and a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia have driven a sharp, sustained reduction in vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, pushing daily transits well below historical averages and anchoring trader sentiment toward the lower outcome buckets.** Following the blockade announcement, weekly transits fell 24% to the 266–269 range (roughly 38 daily), with preliminary data showing stabilization near early-2026 levels around 31 ships per day. Ship-tracking data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence confirm that many tankers and bulk carriers have diverted or held position, citing elevated risk of missile and drone attacks. Oil flows remain constrained near 4.2 million barrels per day—roughly half the pre-2024 peaks—reflecting the same risk premium that elevates war-risk insurance and prompts longer Cape of Good Hope routings. With the market resolution window now only two weeks away and no confirmed de-escalation or ceasefire in place, the 43% probability on <25 daily transits and 26.5% on 25–29 captures the current low-volume equilibrium. Higher buckets (35+) receive minimal implied odds because any material recovery would require rapid security improvements unlikely to materialize before month-end. Geopolitical volatility around Saudi ports and the broader Red Sea corridor remains the dominant driver, keeping near-term traffic expectations firmly suppressed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions