Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5% in June alongside core at 2.5%, anchors trader expectations for the August print. Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of August 14 place August headline CPI at 3.36%, with consensus forecasts pointing to a modest 0.2% monthly gain that would hold the annual rate near 3.4% or nudge it to 3.3%. These outcomes command the highest implied probabilities—42% and 30%, respectively—reflecting market-implied odds for continued gradual disinflation supported by favorable base effects and contained shelter and goods prices. Geopolitical energy pressures and Fed policy holding at 3.5–3.75% introduce upside risks, yet recent data and nowcasts keep the distribution clustered around 3.3–3.5%. The September 11 CPI release remains the key near-term catalyst for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.4% 42%
3.3% 30%
3.5% 16%
3.2% 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤2.9%
3%
3.0%
5%
3.1%
4%
3.2%
6%
3.3%
30%
3.4%
42%
3.5%
16%
3.6%
6%
3.7%
3%
3.8%
3%
3.9%
2%
≥4.0%
1%
3.4% 42%
3.3% 30%
3.5% 16%
3.2% 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤2.9%
$175 Vol.
3%
3.0%
$204 Vol.
5%
3.1%
$212 Vol.
4%
3.2%
$174 Vol.
6%
3.3%
$2,854 Vol.
30%
3.4%
$3,641 Vol.
42%
3.5%
$389 Vol.
16%
3.6%
$175 Vol.
6%
3.7%
$274 Vol.
3%
3.8%
$295 Vol.
3%
3.9%
$311 Vol.
2%
≥4.0%
$196 Vol.
1%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5% in June alongside core at 2.5%, anchors trader expectations for the August print. Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of August 14 place August headline CPI at 3.36%, with consensus forecasts pointing to a modest 0.2% monthly gain that would hold the annual rate near 3.4% or nudge it to 3.3%. These outcomes command the highest implied probabilities—42% and 30%, respectively—reflecting market-implied odds for continued gradual disinflation supported by favorable base effects and contained shelter and goods prices. Geopolitical energy pressures and Fed policy holding at 3.5–3.75% introduce upside risks, yet recent data and nowcasts keep the distribution clustered around 3.3–3.5%. The September 11 CPI release remains the key near-term catalyst for resolution.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$8,897End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5% in June alongside core at 2.5%, anchors trader expectations for the August print. Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of August 14 place August headline CPI at 3.36%, with consensus forecasts pointing to a modest 0.2% monthly gain that would hold the annual rate near 3.4% or nudge it to 3.3%. These outcomes command the highest implied probabilities—42% and 30%, respectively—reflecting market-implied odds for continued gradual disinflation supported by favorable base effects and contained shelter and goods prices. Geopolitical energy pressures and Fed policy holding at 3.5–3.75% introduce upside risks, yet recent data and nowcasts keep the distribution clustered around 3.3–3.5%. The September 11 CPI release remains the key near-term catalyst for resolution.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$8,897End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5% in June alongside core at 2.5%, anchors trader expectations for the August print. Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of August 14 place August headline CPI at 3.36%, with consensus forecasts pointing to a modest 0.2% monthly gain that would hold the annual rate near 3.4% or nudge it to 3.3%. These outcomes command the highest implied probabilities—42% and 30%, respectively—reflecting market-implied odds for continued gradual disinflation supported by favorable base effects and contained shelter and goods prices. Geopolitical energy pressures and Fed policy holding at 3.5–3.75% introduce upside risks, yet recent data and nowcasts keep the distribution clustered around 3.3–3.5%. The September 11 CPI release remains the key near-term catalyst for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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